Philippine Economy is the Strongest in the World - Findings of Washington USA Think Tank

Philippines has most resilient economy – study

(CNN Philippines) — Should an economic crisis akin to last decade's Great Recession happen again, the Philippines would be the most "resilient" country and be able withstand it, despite its status as an emerging-market economy.

That's the assessment of Center for Global Development (CGD), a think tank based in Washington, D.C.

It's not that hard to imagine another financial crisis happening: Growth in China — the world's second largest economy — has slowed, the United States' bull market hasn't had a correction since 2011, and in the Eurozone, debt-ridden Greece has yet to strike a deal with its creditors.

Economist Liliana Rojas-Suarez of the CGD recently created a "resilience indicator" that measures the vulnerability of an economy to future financial shocks.

Her metric looks into several economic indicators that fall under two categories:

• a country's ability to withstand external shocks 
• government's ability to "rapidly" implement policies that counteract the effects of such shocks 

"I compare the values of the identified variables in 2007 (the preglobal financial crisis year) with the respective values at the end of 2014," she said.

Rojas-Suarez explained: "A country is said to be highly resilient to adverse external shocks if the event does not result in a sharp contractions of economic growth, a severe decline in the rate of growth of real credit and/or the emergence of deep instabilities in the financial sector."

Of the 21 countries she studied, Rojas-Suarez ranked the Philippines as the most resilient economy, ahead of South Korea and China, which fall at second and third, respectively.

Rojas-Suarez found that the Philippines posted a strong improvement in its indebtedness. The debt indicators had substantial influence over the country's ranking.

For example, she points out that the country cut in half its external debt to GDP ratio "from around 40 percent in 2007 to around 20 percent in 2014." This figure stands in stark contrast with most whose ratios are "without significant changes" within that same time period.

She also cites the country's lower government debt to GDP ratio which stood above 40% in 2007, and subsequently shrank to below that figure in 2014.

Likewise, the country also stood out because of its improved inflation performance in 2014 relative to 2007. Rojas-Suarez pointed out that inflation rates have been within the government's targets.

Latin American countries did not do well in the study: "Four of the six Latin American countries in the sample have deteriorated their positions in the ranking. This includes Argentina, which now holds the last position. "

Apart from "bad luck in terms of unfavorable trade," Rojas-Suarez explained that such countries ranked lower because of "the squandering of opportunity to implement needed reforms in the good post-crisis years."

Her study ultimately affirms a long-running cliché: An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure.

"Policy decisions taken in the precrisis period played a major role in explaining a country's macroeconomic performance during the global economic crisis (of last decade)," explained Rojas-Suarez.

"[I]nitial conditions at the onset of a severe adverse external shock matter a lot. The good news is that, besides the commodity price shock, the most feared external shock: a sudden rise in interest rates in the US has not (yet) materialized. Time is still on the side of emerging markets’ authorities." - CNN

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The fuel for the Philippines as the Shining pearl to global investors

Taking a look of the millions of Filipino Professionals who are not hesitant to accept jobs lower from their level of educational attainment, or other Filipinos who landed the match job of their profession makes the Philippines as a funnel from hard working people overseas to build the Economy. They are the legion of  Philippine Economy Army; the Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW)

Eileen Alcala, cashier in the Upper Crust sandwich shop in Singapore, is a member of the legion of Philippine Economy Army and one reason the Philippines is suddenly looking like a rare investment bright spot after years as one of Asia's persistent laggards.

Put off by tough competition for jobs in Manila, the 24-year-old graduate in hotel and restaurant management left the Philippine capital for Singapore two months ago and now sends over half her monthly pay – about S$500 ($394) – back home.

Taking a look at a professional who landed a job abroad match to his educational discipline; Denis Somoso, an International Taxation Specialist and Accountant of a World Leading Design and Engineering & Construction Firm in South Korea, 32 year old bachelor graduate of Bachelor of Science in Accountancy in MTIM Iligan City left the Philippines for South Korea, given a good benefits from the company rented studio type apartment, free transportation,  food and cost of living allowance,  two and a half year ago and for the past 2 years sending 95% of his monthly pay – about Krw 2,550,000 ($ 2,200.00 USD) – back home.

Numbers like these highlight steady growth in remittances from the Philippine diaspora – and help explain why the, Standard & Poor's became the latest rating agency to upgrade the Philippines, to BB+. That is the country's highest grade for nine years and one notch below investment grade.

The move reflected the Philippines' strengthening external position, with OFW remittances and an expanding service export sector continuing to drive current account surpluses", S&P said.

Foreign reserves of $76 Billion as of May exceed the country's external debt of $63 Billion. Inflation is below 3.5 per cent and gross domestic product growth, driven by robust electronic exports, is forecast by the government at 5-6 per cent this year.

At a time when many economies are struggling, the Philippines is among only 10 sovereigns in the world with positive outlooks, notes Barclays.

Investors are taking note. Philippine share prices are up a quarter since the start of the year, making Manila the world's fourth-best performing equities market on expectations that the country will win investment-grade credit status by next year.

Indeed, since January 2012 foreign investors have pumped $1.8 Billion into the market, according to Bloomberg, a 265 per cent increase on the same month a year ago.

A "public-private partnership program" (PPP) launched six months ago to overcome infrastructure bottlenecks has not only attracted foreign interest but is boosting the shares of companies seen likely to benefit from government contracts, such as Ayala and Metro Pacific Investment.

"The government is much focused on accelerating the PPP program," said Prakriti Sofat, regional economist at Barclays in Singapore.

Laggards on the exchange have been companies with broader exposure to the economy, such as Philippine Airlines and Manila Electric. Still, constituents in the stock market index are trading on an average price/earnings multiple of 18 times. That compares with 20 times for the Jakarta index and 15.6 times for the Kuala Lumpur index.

The yield on the country's benchmark 10-year government bond, meanwhile, is at 5.8 per cent, down from 6.5 per cent this time a year ago. That compares with a yield on comparable Indonesian debt of 6.1 per cent, against 7.3 per cent a year ago.

Hans Sicat, chief executive of the Philippine Stock Exchange, predicts funds raised through company listings and secondary activity will hit ₱107 Billion Pesos ($2.6 Billion US Dollars) this year.

Yet investors may be glossing over the risk that the two-year-old administration of President Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino may take time to deliver.

"Investors are so bullish, they are forgiving many of the country's structural sins," says Luz Lorenzo, economist at Maybank ATR Kim Eng group.

The Aquino administration's gains in lowering the budget deficit were achieved mainly through lower government spending, which fell as a proportion of GDP to 16 per cent last year, from 17.7 per cent in 2009.

A clampdown on tax evasion has resulted in the filing of scores of complaints against suspected tax evaders. Yet, actual tax collection as a proportion of GDP has barely moved, up from 12.1 per cent in 2010 to 12.3 per cent last year, according to the central bank.

The government's tax take is being eroded by a series of exemptions approved by the former president but Mr. Aquino does get credit for a planned new tax on cigarettes and liquor – so-called "sin taxes". Rogier van den Brink, a World Bank economist, says: "They are closing the net on tax collection."

Poor implementation has plagued previous reform efforts, and analysts warn this is still an issue. "I remind [clients] how it went with power privatization. The law was passed in 2001 but the first assets were sold in 2004, and it was only in 2007 that the process really took off," Ms Lorenzo said.

Still, investing has become easier after exchange trading hours were extended in January from a previous lunchtime close to 3.30pm.

A rule forcing listed companies to have a minimum 10 per cent float by the end of this year has prompted a flurry of secondary market activity. That has spurred foreign participation, which accounts for 38 per cent of the market, says Mr. Sicat. "What we're seeing is a very strong local bid, which is helping improve confidence for anyone who is coming in from the outside."

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Malaysia Shocked Philippines Pledge $1 Billion Dollars to IMF to help European Crisis

In the opinion posted by the NewStraitsTimes a Malaysian online news website, it really surprised that the Philippines is now afford to pledge $1 Billion USD Dollar to the IMF to help the European crisis.

AT the recent G20 Leaders' Summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, 12 countries committed US$456 billion (RM1.4 trillion) funds to beef up the International Monetary Fund's facility to address the financial crises, notably the sovereign debt and banking debacles in Europe.

Three of the 12 contributors were ASEAN member countries at US$1 billion each, namely Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Philippines pledge right then and ahead of Malaysia and Thailand.

Somewhat challenging to Malaysia as the Philippines without any doubts pledged for $1 Billion dollars and later 2 countries followed namely; Malaysia and Thailand

What? The Philippines? 

(It is like saying oh? this beggar could afford now to pledge that much $1 Billies USD Dollars? how comes?)

"It is our obligation to assist those nations who require funding from the IMF. This would also help in stabilising the crisis that is going on in Europe," a spokesman of Philippine President Benigno S. Aquino III affirmed.

These developments surprised many, as the country used to be a net borrower as far as its membership was concerned. In 2006, however, the country prepaid all its outstanding debts with the IMF, given its much-improved external liquidity position. It then achieved its new status by participating in the Financial Transaction Plan as a creditor country in 2010.

The country can afford to lend as it has some US$76 billion in gross international reserves (GIR) at present, thanks in no small measure to the Aquino administration's no-nonsense good governance thrust that attracted foreign investors back to the Philippines.

With strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth sustained through the years -- and a surprising 6.4 per cent growth for the first three months of the year -- global financial institutions have certainly noticed. Morgan Stanley recently listed the Philippines as one of the "breakout nations", and Goldman Sachs' proclaimed it among the "Next 11" countries. In a May 3 article aptly titled "The Philippines astounds the skeptics", Bloomberg Businessweek cited the great strides that resulted from governance reforms and infrastructure developments. For those who can wait it out, there is the HSBC's forecast that the Philippines will be the 16th biggest economy in 2050. But that's getting too far ahead of our story.

In my and others' views, a realistic barometer of the vigour of the economy is that there are less young Filipinos looking for jobs overseas because of available good ones at home, notably in the business process outsourcing (BPO) and related sectors. These companies, which handle customer support, technical problems and other tasks for overseas clients, now provide employment to some 638,000 people and took in US$11 billion last year, about five per cent of the country's GDP. This makes the Philippine BPO voice-related services, in particular, the biggest in the world, even ahead of India.

Our region is looking forward to the establishment of an Asean Community by 2015, with deeper integration of national economies at its core. It would do well to have more business companies within the region collaborating for mutual benefit.

There has been a substantial Malaysian business presence in the Philippines since the 90s, with the likes of Maybank, Berjaya and other companies.

In fact, there has been a surge recently in two-way investments. AlloyMTD Group, which rehabilitated the South Luzon Expressway, is constructing nine mini-hydroelectric dams in northern Luzon and a government offices complex in Laguna province. CIMB Bank bought into the Philippine Bank of Commerce, with investments reaching some RM1 billion.  After profitably operating the Resorts World Manila hotel-casino across Manila's international airport, Genting is investing in a second casino complex by the famed Manila Bay to be completed in 2016, in the new "Entertainment City", which aims to rival Macau.

Investment flows being by nature two-way, Petron Corporation recently completed its purchase of the retail services business of Esso Malaysia Bhd, with investments worth at least US$610 million.

Business opportunities in the two countries were the focus of an investment forum in Kuala Lumpur last May, which was attended by some 300 businessmen and women. Present were Philippine Vice-President Jejomar Binay, who led a delegation of 24 leading Filipino businessmen and officials from the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Right after meeting Binay, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak tweeted: "Fruitful discussions that will hopefully strengthen socio-economic ties." This is a sign that Philippines-Malaysia relations have nowhere to go but up.

Sectors for productive collaboration were highlighted by both the Philippine Department of Trade and Industry and the Malaysian External Trade Development Corporation (Matrade), notably tourism infrastructure, agro-business, mass housing, energy/electricity, logistics, Islamic finance, halal food and investments opportunities in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao.

What impressed those at the forum were the two messages delivered by Malaysian investors already doing business in the Philippines.

First, the Philippine has a large consumer market of 94 million people, the largest in Southeast Asia after Indonesia, which cannot be taken for granted.

"The Philippine has all the ingredients for success. We want to invest in a country with the right population so that there is a big consumer base. The Philippines is a big customer base," said Berjaya Corporation founder Tan Sri Vincent Tan.

Second, despite its occasional noisy internal politics, business has remained profitable through the years, AlloyMTD Group CEO and Malaysia-Philippine Business Council pro-tempore chair Datuk Azmil Khalil stated. (Well, it isn't the Philippines if the politics is any less exciting). It also helps to consider the other factors that make the country a preferred investment destination with the following points as the Philippines in the NOW:

1. THE best global BPO destination;
2. A TOP global electronics assembly hub;
3. THE world's fourth largest shipbuilder;
4. THE world's next mining power;
5. ASIA'S trusted logistics support center;
6. ABUNDANT managerial talents,
7. HIGHLY skilled, reliable, English-speaking workforce
8. LIBERALIZED investment and incentives policies, and,
9. IT is home to Boracay, Palawan, and some of the best beaches and diving spots in the world, for those serious at both work and play.

The Philippines has its fiscal house in order and is now a lender nation. It is vigorously reaching out to its neighbors and strengthening relations with them. Truly, exciting times are ahead; it added.

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S&P Raises Philippines’ Credit Rating “BB+” to 9-Year High

July 5, 2012: The Philippines' debt rating was raised to the highest level since 2003 by Standard & Poor's, taking President Benigno Aquino nearer his goal of attaining investment grade.

The nation's long-term foreign currency-denominated debt was raised one level to BB+ from BB, S&P said in a statement Wednesday (July 4, 2012). That's one step below investment grade and on a par with neighboring Indonesia. The outlook on the rating is stable.

"The foreign currency rating upgrade reflects our assessment of gradually easing fiscal vulnerability," Agost Benard, a Singapore-based analyst at Standard & Poor's, said in the statement. "The rating action also reflects the country's strengthening external position, with remittances and an expanding service export sector continuing to drive current- account surpluses."

Emerging nations from Brazil to Indonesia have won credit- rating upgrades in the past year as governments contained budget deficits. A higher assessment for the Philippines will help Aquino as he moves to boost spending to a record this year and seeks $16 billion of investment in roads, bridges and airports to shield the economy from Europe's sovereign-debt crisis.

The Philippine peso (₱) is up 4.8 percent against the dollar in 2012, the best performer in a basket of 11 major Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index climbed to a record this week. The benchmark seven-year bond yield fell to the lowest in at least two months yesterday.

'Very Positive'

S&P's recognition for the Philippines' strong external position, growth prospects and improving fiscal sector adds fundamental support to the market, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco said yesterday after the ratings action.

Moody's Investors Service boosted its outlook on the Philippines to positive in May 2012, citing improving debt levels. Fitch Ratings raised the country's debt to one step below investment grade in June 2011.

S&P's move is "very positive because it promotes the country's macroeconomic and fiscal context," said Fitz Aclan, who helps manage ₱850 billion pesos ($20.4 billion) at Manila- based BDO Unibank Inc. "There could be some upward movement for our sovereign bonds, even our local bonds. This will also be positive for equities."

Aquino plans to narrow the budget shortfall to 2 percent of gross domestic product by 2013 from a target of 2.6 percent this year. The government has stepped up efforts to catch tax evaders and smugglers, and has drawn up bills aimed at increasing revenue to narrow the fiscal deficit.

"We expect further rating improvements will likely be driven by either our appraisal of improving political and institutional factors or by evidence of a sustainable structural revenue improvement," S&P said. "Conversely, we may lower the ratings if the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation weakens, resulting in rising debt, or if the external liquidity position deteriorates significantly."

The $200 billion economy grew 6.4 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace since 2010. Aquino is aiming for an expansion of as much as 8 percent annually to cut poverty.

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2012 Philippines economic growth level up at 6.4 percent in Quarter 1

 It's more fun in the Philippines; it's more fun to invest in the Philippines.

In spite of shaky economy in the US and in Europe; Philippines  economic jump shows it's more fun to invest the Philippines.

The Philippine economy grew a faster-than-expected 6.4 percent in the first three months of the year, boosted by increased government spending.

The National Economic and Development Authority says the pickup from a sluggish 3.7 percent growth in 2011 also shows renewed business confidence in the Philippines.

The growth was fueled by a surge in public construction as the government splashed out on new roads and airports.

The government late last year announced a 72 billion peso ($1.66 billion) stimulus package to cushion the economy from Europe's debt crisis.

The services sector, which accounts for more than half of the economy, was supported by a rise in real estate and tourist arrivals.

The government expects full year growth of 5-6 percent.

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Philippine infrastructure planners have dreamt for years of building an elevated highway above the traffic-clogged streets of metropolitan Manila and linking the capital with the fast-growing cities and ports to the north and south.

Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino, the president, last week approved not one but two toll road projects across the city and instructed ministers to speed up the tendering process so they could be completed by the time he steps down from office in four years. He was hoping, he joked, for an easier journey to the beach.

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The proposed toll road projects, together worth 48bn pesos ($1.1bn), are adding to growing business optimism about the Philippines' medium-term prospects. Analysts say the country is on the cusp of its first investment boom since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, after more than a decade of political instability.

Many of the country's biggest conglomerates are rolling out their most ambitious spending plans in years to build shopping malls, office towers and residential projects.

The president is inviting private companies to build infrastructure projects, such as airports and light rail systems, through public-private partnerships that bind the government to help ensure investors recover costs and earn minimum returns through user charges or direct government payments.

Ramon del Rosario Jr, chairman of the Makati Business Club, a grouping of the country's biggest companies, believes foreign investors are also expressing confidence in the Aquino administration's efforts to tackle corruption.

"The main thing that has changed is this idea that we are now serious about good governance, about integrity in government, about fighting corruption," he said in a television interview, shortly after the Senate voted to remove the chief justice of the Supreme Court for failing to declare US dollar deposits in his asset disclosure statements.

Shares in listed companies betting big on infrastructure, including San Miguel and Metro Pacific – the two proponents of the highway project – have surged since late last year, making the Philippines one of the best performing equities markets in the world. Despite market volatility triggered by the risk of a Greek exit from the EUROZONE, the Philippine Stock Exchange index is up 14.8 percent this year after hitting record highs 19 times in the first five months of 2012.

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The Philippines is announcing first-quarter gross domestic product results on Thursday, and analysts predict that economic growth year-on-year may have accelerated to 4.6 per cent from 3.7 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to a Reuters poll.

Most economic forecasters say the Philippines will expand 5 per cent or more next year, giving the country a fighting chance of hitting the government's growth target of 7-8 per cent in 2016.

In the short term, however, the country's economic prospects are more subdued amid continuing sluggishness in the US and Europe, and a slowdown in China.

Exports, which are equivalent to about a third of the economy, fell 1.2 per cent from a year ago in March as deliveries to East Asia dropped sharply.

Some of the country's exports to China, such as bananas and other fruits, have been affected by the dispute between the two countries over the Scarborough Shoal reef in the South China Sea. However, Philippine trade officials do not expect the diplomatic dispute to affect deliveries of electronics parts and minerals, which Chinese companies need to produce other goods.

Mr Aquino also faces the challenge of improving regulatory capacity across government agencies and units, and resolving policy conflicts that are slowing down the approvals for large investments, say business leaders.

A case in point is plans by the Philippine unit of Xstrata' to spend up to $5.9bn in the next five years to develop one of the world's largest untapped mining deposits in the southern Philippines. The project is potentially the country's single-biggest inward foreign investment but is being stalled by a local government ban on open-pit mining.

Milagros Reyes, who heads PetroEnergy Resources, an exploration group, complains that investors often get caught between different government agencies with overlapping mandates. "We bring in foreign drill ships that are leased per day only to be told to wait for days for permits by maritime authorities" seeking to protect the domestic shipping industry, she said.

More Fun! Incredible Economic Jump of the Philippines in Q1 2012

Incredible! Amazing! While other Asian countries describe themselves with superlatives, the Philippines national ad campaign promises only "more fun."

Filipinos have reasons to smile. Asia's perennial underachiever is outperforming. This week saw more successes: Moody's upped its outlook on the country's credit rating to "positive," citing prudent fiscal management. An anti-graft drive notched a win with a guilty verdict in the impeachment trial of a former chief justice. And first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 6.4%, announced Thursday, defied most forecasts as well as the mood in the global economy.

But to build on the promise, the Philippines must deliver on three main growth drivers.

Business-process outsourcing is already booming due to strong English skills, cheap rent and low wages. A fondness for basketball and Hollywood movies is an advantage, too, when it comes to staffing call centers with workers who can make a cultural connection with U.S. customers. Starting from scratch a decade ago, the sector generated revenue of $11.25 billion last year. CLSA says that could double by 2015.

Government officials say tourism is a low-hanging fruit. They aim to triple arrivals to 10 million by 2016. A $5 billion gambling hub under construction will help. So too a surge in new planned hotel rooms and a rising tide of Chinese visitors, whose numbers were up almost 30% last year.

Arrivals hit a record high 1.2 million in the first quarter. But there are challenges. A regional economic slowdown would hurt. Manila's spat with China over potentially resource-rich areas of the South China Sea has raised diplomatic tensions that could stymie Chinese tourism too.

Poor infrastructure is a bigger issue. Security concerns at the country's airports have led to restrictions on its carriers. International aviation regulators won't let the nation's major airlines fly new routes to South Korea or the U.S.—their top two markets for visitors—until domestic airports improve.

Indeed, infrastructure spending is the third leg of the country's growth agenda. The government has pledged an extensive public-works program. The first quarter saw public construction jump 62% over last year. That pace must be sustained. Private investment activity also needs to pick up. RBS says weak private investment was a factor in disappointing first quarter construction overall, which was up just 0.3% from a year earlier.

Manila is more fun these days. But the Philippines must get serious on infrastructure to make the most of its time in the sun.

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Moodys upgrade rating of the Philippines 1 notch up -economy resilient

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE has raised the Philippines' credit rating outlook to positive from stable as the government continues to reduce the fiscal deficit and public debt.

The move sets the stage for a possible upgrade of the Philippines' Ba2 credit rating -- two notches below investment grade -- in the next 12 to 18 months, Moody's Assistant Vice-President Christian de Guzman yesterday said in an e-mail.

The debt watcher is slated to visit the country in June as part of its "regularly scheduled surveillance activities," he added.

Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima, in a statement, said: "This is one more step in our march towards investment grade, towards reducing the gap between the market rating and the credit rating, and more importantly towards a more sustainable growth path".

The Aquino administration aims to secure its first-ever investment grade credit rating by 2016 in order to lower its borrowing costs and attract more foreign investors.

According to Moody's, among the key drivers behind the positive outlook were the government's "faster-than-expected" fiscal consolidation and active debt management.

"The government of the Philippines has continued to demonstrate prudence in its fiscal management, as characterized by low budget deficits relative to its rating peers and a steadily declining level of debt relative to GDP (gross domestic product)," it said in a report released yesterday.

The government trimmed its deficit to ₱2.885 billion as of April, just 1% of its P279.1-billion cap for this year. It was also kept at P197.754 billion in 2011, two-thirds of the ₱300-billion ceiling.

Moreover, national government debt fell to only 50.9% of the GDP last year, surpassing the target of 51.7% and the 52.4% posted in 2010.

"Such outcomes are the result of expenditure restraint and improved revenue performance," Moody's noted.

Revenue collections, in particular, have grown faster than the GDP in the past five quarters, solely due to tax administration measures, it added.

"We expect revenue growth to improve further upon the passage of legislation aimed at restructuring excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco products."

Moreover, the Philippines has successfully improved its public debt by lowering borrowing costs, lengthening maturities and reducing foreign currency exposure, Moody's said.

The government successfully concluded a $1.5-billion offer of 25-year global bonds in January, securing interest rates of only 5% -- the lowest ever achieved by an Asian sovereign for bonds with a tenor greater than ten years.

It also repurchased $1.3 billion in high-coupon, foreign-currency bonds last October, cutting borrowing costs by settling the debt papers before their maturity.

Other than an improvement in national finances, Moody's also cited the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) for its "solid track record of inflation management."

"The sovereign's vulnerability to global financial market shocks has been reduced by the build-up of foreign exchange reserves, resulting in turn from robust current account surpluses and healthy capital inflows in recent years," it added.

The outlook on the BSP's Ba2 credit rating was likewise raised to positive from stable yesterday.

While concerns still remain over the Philippines' large debt stock, it is mitigated by institutional features such as automatic appropriations in the budget for debt servicing, Moody's said.

"In addition, an increasingly large bond sinking fund provides an adequate buffer that guards against near-term liquidity pressures," the credit rater explained.

And as the global economic environment remains uncertain, the Philippine economy is stabilized by remittance inflows which support the balance of payments and spur domestic household consumption, Moody's said.

Overseas Filipino workers remitted a total of $4.842 billion in the first quarter, posting a 5.4% growth year on year against the central bank's 5% projection.

In order to secure a credit rating upgrade, Moody's urged the government to continue the reduction of public debt and pursue reforms to increase revenues. It must also accelerate public spending in areas of the economy that would spur growth.

"These developments should also be accompanied by the continued health of the country's balance of payments and stability of the financial system," it said.

The Philippines, meanwhile, must be wary of macroeconomic instability which could trigger inflation. "A shift away from the focus on good governance" would also be detrimental.

For their part, economic managers hailed the impact of the Aquino administration's campaign of good governance.

"The message we have been trying to send ... is that fiscal performance can improve with good governance," central bank Governor Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. said.

"This positive rating action is therefore welcome and is a sign that Moody's is seeing the fruits of good governance on all fronts: fiscal, monetary and external."

Mr. Purisima added: "The Aquino administration will continue to focus on good governance as the basis for good economics, on fiscal sustainability, on macroeconomic stability and on opening up the country to business and tourism."

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Net Foreign Direct Investment Inflows surge 142% in March 2011 - Banco Central

The Banco Central Sa Pilipinas / Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported  June 9, 2011 that net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows surged 142 percent in March as equity infusion more than doubled while withdrawals declined.

BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said that net FDI inflows amounted to $167 million Dollar in March or $98 million lower than the $69 million inflows booked in the same month last year.

"All FDI components yielded positive balances during the month," Tetangco stressed.

Data showed that equity placements jumped 113 percent to $64 million Dollar in March from $30 million in the same month last year while withdrawals slowed down by 47 percent to $18 million from $34 million.

The net inflow of other capital account consisting largely of intercompany borrowing between foreign direct investors and their subsidiaries or affiliates in the Philippines jumped 146.2 percent to $96 million in March from $39 million in the same period last year while reinvested earnings fell 26.5 percent to $25 million from $34 million.

In all, Tetangco said net FDI inflows retreated by 16.6 percent to $471 million in the first quarter of the year from $565 million in the same period last year due to the tensions in Middle East and North African (MENA) states, the debt crisis in Europe, and the disasters in Japan.

"Investors remained cautious on account of the uncertainties brought about by the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe, the political unrest in the MENA region as well as the disasters that struck Japan," the BSP chief stressed.

Equity placements retreated by 7.6 percent to $121 million from January to March compared to $131 million in the same period last year while withdrawals plunged 53.5 percent to $40 million from $86 million.

Data showed that reinvested earnings plummeted 38.3 percent to $113 million from $183 million while other capital fell 17.8 percent to $277 million from $337 million.

FDI inflows retreated by 12.7 percent to $1.71 billion last year from $1.96 billion in 2009 as equity placements plunged 42.5 percent to $1.15 billion while equity withdrawals increased by 10.8 percent to $307 million.

The drop was attributed to the decline in equity capital investments in new and existing projects as investor sentiment was generally marked by cautiousness and uncertainties surrounding the sovereign debt crisis in some parts of Europe, geopolitical tensions in Korea, asset price bubble and overheating concerns in fast growing emerging markets.

Likewise, the BSP explained that large-scale investments arising from the privatization of a local power corporation and the acquisition of shares of a local beverage manufacturing firm were recorded in 2009.

These included the investment made by China's largest electricity provider State Grid Corp. and Monte Oro Grid Resources Corp. in state-owned National Transmission Corp. (Transco) that bagged a $3.95 billion concession contract as well as the decision of Japanese brewer Kirin Holdings to acquire a stake in Manila-based San Miguel Brewery of diversified conglomerate San Miguel Corp. worth ₱ 65.8 billion.

Monetary authorities are confident that FDIs would continue to pour into the Philippines to fund projects under the Aquino administration's public private partnership (PPP) scheme.

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