Philippines awash in illegal firearms; Citizens armed themselves due to Government's incapability to protect civilians

Citizens lack confidence in ability of security forces to protect public

Bespectacled and clean-shaven, 37-year-old Jomari Paraas could pass for a typical office employee in the Philippines — except he has six guns in his backpack that he will soon sell.

The father of two is a prolific player in the country's enormous and lucrative weapons black market, which has been under scrutiny following a spate of high-profile massacres and shootouts this year.

"Why do I trade guns? Because there is a demand for it. And it's extra income," said Paraas, a community organizer for a nongovernmental organization and a former communist guerrilla.

Speaking in a crowded Manila slum where he was planning to sell the six guns, Paraas said he had been a firearms trader for more than a decade, starting in his late 20s. He started selling used guns and knockoffs of foreign brands made by illegal gunsmiths in the central and southern Philippines before moving to more expensive weapons smuggled from abroad.

The American-made .22-caliber Magnum Black Widow revolvers in his bag were ordered by a buyer through a shadowy network of small-time gun runners who take advantage of the city's urban squalor to peddle their deadly wares.

Their clients range from security-conscious housewives to slum dwellers and members of "private armies" employed by political warlords.

"They are light and easy to move, and in demand from many people because they primarily use it for self-defense," Paraas said of the revolvers, which he sells for 5,000 pesos ($120) each. "Higher caliber guns and automatic rifles can also be bought, at a higher price."

The proliferation of firearms in the Philippines has been in the spotlight since January, following a series of shooting-related deaths, including of two children hit by stray bullets on New Year's Eve. A drugs-crazed gunman also killed seven people in a slum rampage, and a shootout linked to a gambling turf war left 13 dead, among them corrupt police and military officers.

The Philippines has a strong gun culture dating back centuries, with a history of armed struggle against Spanish and U.S. colonial rulers.

Firepower to spare: A sales assistant demonstrates how to convert a 9 mm handgun into a compact submachinegun at a weapons store in Manila on April 4. | AFP-JIJI

Today, people typically carry guns because they lack confidence in the country's security forces to protect the public, according to security analysts and firearms traders. There were 1.2 million registered firearms in the Philippines last year, with another 600,000 unlicensed firearms in circulation, according to national police data.

Getting a license to own a conventional gun is easy, but getting one without a police clearance can be even easier. Security analyst Ed Quitoriano, who regularly advises foreign embassies on threat issues, said there could be as many as 4 million unlicensed guns across the country.

The gun culture can be unsettling, particularly for foreign visitors. Private security guards with loaded, sawed-off shotguns infest the crime-plagued cities, protecting small and large private businesses. Restaurants, nightclubs and banks often have signs asking patrons to leave their firearms at entrance counters.

Foreigners are warned by long-time expatriates to avoid any incident that could escalate into violence, because of the potential for a gun to be used on them.

President Benigno Aquino III launched a high-profile campaign at the start of the year to get unlicensed guns off the streets. But government data shows this has so far netted fewer that 2,200 firearms, highlighting what Quitoriano said was the government's lack of resolve and capabilities to tackle the issue.

He said many powerful figures, including soldiers, police and politicians, profited from the firearms trade — part of a huge corruption problem that plagues all sectors of society.

Quitoriano also said the climate of fear fueled the black market: "If the public trusted the government more, there would be no need for them to protect themselves by arming."

Alexander Reyes, who owns self-defense specialty shop Aquila Firearms and Ammunition Corp. at a Manila mall, agreed. "It used to be for prestige, because guns equate with power," Reyes said. "But nowadays, it is mostly for protection. The police cannot protect you 24/7."

Japan Times

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The Philippines as a BRIC Economies Successor

Recently, the BRICS nations met in South Africa. Due to severe debt crises in the advanced nations, the growth prospects in these economies are no longer immune to the turmoil in the West.

Among the emerging economies, the Philippines is best-placed for an upgrade. It is favorably positioned to sustain growth in an exceptionally grim international landscape. It could even become a BRIC nation – with continued reforms.

In the sweet spot    

During the past decade, I have used much time exploring and consulting on the transformation of the major advanced and large emerging economies worldwide. What most nations find particularly intriguing are the growth lessons of the BRICs.

When Goldman Sachs identified the emerging group of potential successors to the BRICs a few years ago, the Philippines also made it into the list, in the footprints of two other major Southeast Asian nations. However, Indonesia and Vietnam have attracted much more FDI, so far.

In the aftermath of the Ramos era, the role of the Philippines as a BRIC successor was based mainly on its economic potential rather than a sustained growth record. In 2002, the Philippines gross domestic product still amounted to $81 billion, in current prices. Today, it has tripled to $241 billion.

In the aftermath of the global crisis, the Philippines is one of the few nations in which forecasts are revised up by financial analysts. In January, it reported 6.8 percent year-to-year growth, which made it the growth leader in Southeast Asia.

Almost half of the recent growth can be attributed to private consumption, which has been coupled by investment, especially in construction. Due to the impending mid-term elections in May, government spending will accelerate through the spring.

The acceleration of domestic demand since the first quarter of 2012 reflects the country's solid macroeconomic fundamentals, stronger government finances, and confidence in the Aquino government's commitment to reform.

Along with current account surpluses and foreign exchange reserves, the growth record has given rise to a more diversified export basket, while shielding the economy from very challenging international headwinds.

Complacency is not an option

The beauty of the BRIC projections is that they allow policy architects to reflect on (very) long time perspectives. The trap of the same projections is that, when they create a sense of inevitability, they can lull even the most promising growth stories into complacency.

In the Philippines, delivering the growth promise is predicated on accelerated structural progress.

According to various competitiveness indicators, the country has made dramatic strides in improving competitiveness, though often from a very low base. The perception is that corruption and red tape are finally addressed decisively. With the strong macroeconomic performance, the financial sector has become supportive of business activity.

Despite these positive trends, weaknesses remain to be addressed, including the poor infrastructure, various market inefficiencies and labor market rigidities.

As the Aquino administration knows only too well, the economy needs to shift from consumption towards investment, both public and private. Sectorally, this requires rising productivity in agriculture, less dependence on low-wage and low-skill services and more on labor-intensive manufacturing and high value services.

In BRIC economies, such changes have typically preceded periods of sustained growth. However, in order to raise the incentives for job creation and entrepreneurship, they require difficult policy reforms in agriculture, manufacturing, business and labor regulations, and social protection.

In turn, these reforms make possible greater public investment in health, education, and infrastructure.

BRIC future requires more inclusive growth              

In the absence of adverse developments, the Philippines is at the verge of receiving an investment-grade rating, by the major rating agencies.

Nonetheless, significant challenges of poverty remain. Growth is not yet inclusive.

Except for Brazil, inequities have typically increased in all emerging economies during their high-growth phases, while job-creation has been strong and unemployment low. In the Philippines, the story is different.

Even in 2011-2012, unemployment rate stayed at 7%, while underemployment rate rose to 22.7% since the number of full-time jobs declined by half a million in the same period.

In the next half a decade, GDP growth rate in the Philippines could climb close to that of China. But in order to be sustained, this growth must become more inclusive.

In the Philippines, the BRIC future has potential for a large consumer economy, with some 150-170 million people by 2050. That objective is predicated on huge expansion of consumption – but it is only viable through more inclusive growth.

Due to the historical legacies of the Philippine political and economic institutions, there remain strong vested interests in the current status quo. That, in turn, makes vital reforms challenging to implement.

The Aquino administration has proven able and willing to make difficult decisions. In all BRIC nations, sustained growth has been neither inevitable nor automatic. It does not just happen. It must be made to happen. And sometimes that requires painful decisions in the short-term because they make possible sustained growth in the long-term.

An abbreviated version was published by The Philippine Daily Inquirer on April 1, 2013

Economonitor 

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