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Saturday, May 26, 2012

WikiLeaks: China admits 9 dash Historical claim in West Philippines is FABRICATED

Wikileaks: Alongside an armada of paramilitary patrol vessels and fishing boats, China has fired off a barrage of historical records to reinforce its claim over a disputed shoal near the Philippines in the South China Sea.

While this propaganda broadside makes it clear Beijing will take a tough line with Manila as a standoff over Scarborough Shoal continues into a seventh week, the exact legal justification for China's claim and the full extent of the territory affected remain uncertain, according to experts in maritime law.

Like most of its claims to vast expanses of the resource-rich and strategically important South China Sea, Beijing prefers to remain ambiguous about the details, they say.

This allows the ruling Communist Party to demonstrate to an increasingly nationalistic domestic audience that it can defend China's right to control a swathe of ocean territory.

And, it avoids further inflaming tensions with neighbors who are already apprehensive about China's growing military power and territorial ambition.

"This ambiguity serves China's domestic purpose which is to safeguard the government's legitimacy and satisfy domestic public opinion," said Sun Yun, a Washington D.C.-based China foreign policy expert and a former analyst for the International Crisis Group in Beijing.

POTENTIAL FLASHPOINT

Rival claims to territory in the South China Sea are one of the biggest potential flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region.

China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei all have territorial claims across a waterway that provides 10 per cent of the global fisheries catch and carries $5 trillion in ship-borne trade. Half the world's shipping tonnage traverses its sea lanes.

The United States, which claims national interests in the South China Sea, recently completed naval exercises with the Philippines near Scarborough Shoal. It is stepping up its military presence in the region as part of a strategic "pivot" towards Asia after more than a decade of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The acrimonious confrontation over Scarborough Shoal, known as Huangyan Island in Chinese, began last month when Beijing ordered its civilian patrol vessels to stop the Philippines arresting Chinese fisherman working in the disputed area.

Beijing and Manila both claim sovereignty over the group of rocks, reefs and small islands about 220 km (132 miles) from the Philippines.

The Philippines says the shoal falls within its 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone(EEZ), giving it the right to exploit the natural resources in this area.

SONG DYNASTY RECORDS

In a concerted response from Beijing, official government spokesmen, senior diplomats and reports carried by influential state-controlled media outlets have drawn on the histories of earlier dynasties to rebut Manila's claim.

They say the records show China's sailors discovered Scarborough 2,000 years ago and cite extensive records of visits, mapping expeditions and habitation of the shoal from the Song Dynasty (960-1279 AD) right through to the modern period.

To back up these arguments, China has also deployed some of its most advanced paramilitary patrol vessels to the shoal in a calibrated show of strength, for now keeping its increasingly powerful navy at a distance.

A Philippines government spokesman said on Wednesday China had almost 100 Chinese vessels at the shoal, including four government patrol ships. Earlier, Manila demanded that all Chinese vessels leave the area.

China's Foreign Ministry responded on Wednesday that only 20 Chinese fishing boats were in the area, a normal number for this time of the year, and they were operating in accordance with Chinese law.

China disregard that the peoples of the Austronesian language family, more specifically the Malayo-Polynesian branch, were the first to navigate the South China Sea. Their original homelands were Southern China or Taiwan and the island of Luzon in the Philippines. Between 5000-2500 BC, they crossed the South China Sea to populate all over  the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia. From Southeast Asia, they crossed the Pacific Ocean to populate Melanesia and Micronesia by 1200 BC, Polynesia by 1000 BC, Easter Island by 300 AD, Hawaii by 400 AD and New Zealand by 800 AD.

They also crossed the Indian Ocean to populate Madagascar by 0-500 AD. The Indo-Pacific maritime space, including the South China Sea, was their historic water. Since the Austronesian peoples (ancestors of the Filipinos, Indonesians and Malaysians) were the first to navigate the South China Sea, they were the first to discover the islands in the area and to fish in the associated waters.

Though they did not invent writing to record their discovery, it would be ludicrous to deny their discovery of the islands so close to the Philippines and Indonesia in light of the fact that they were able to discover the various islands in the vast Pacific Ocean. By the way, they have been displaced or reduced to aboriginal minority status in their original homelands.

CHINA ADMIT - FABRICATE NINE-DASH LINE HISTORICAL CLAIM (But must save Face)

Maritime lawyers note Beijing routinely outlines the scope of its claims with reference to the so-called nine-dashed line that takes in about 90 percent of the 3.5 million square kilometer West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) on Chinese maps.

This vague boundary was first officially published on a map by China's Nationalist government in 1947 and has been included in subsequent maps issued under Communist rule.

While Beijing has no difficulty in producing historical evidence to support its territorial links to many islands and reefs, less material is available to show how it arrived at the nine-dashed line.

In a September, 2008 U.S. diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing reported that a senior Chinese government maritime law expert, Yin Wenqiang, had "admitted" he was unaware of the historical basis for the nine dashes.

In a March, 2008 cable, the embassy reported that a senior Chinese diplomat, Zheng Zhenhua, had handed over a written statement when asked about the scope of this boundary.

"The dotted line of the South China Sea indicates the sovereignty of China over the islands in the South China Sea since ancient times and demonstrates the long-standing claims and jurisdiction practice over the waters of the South China Sea," the statement said, the embassy reported.

Scarborough Shoal falls within the nine-dashed line, as do the Paracel and Spratly Islands, the two most important disputed island groups in the South China Sea.

LAW OF THE SEA TREATY

China insists it has sovereignty over both these groups but it has yet to specify how much of the rest of the territory within the nine-dashed line it intends to claim.

One reason suggested for this lack of clarity is that China, like all of the other claimants except Taiwan, is a signatory to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

If Beijing defined its claim to conform with the provisions of this treaty, it would almost certainly reduce the scope of Chinese territory and expose the government to criticism from vocal nationalists.

Alternatively, if Beijing was to maximize the extent of its claim to include all or most of the territory within the nine-dashed line, it would be difficult to justify under international law and antagonize its neighbors.

"Neither choice leads to a promising prospect," said Sun. "Therefore sticking to the existing path is the most rational."

This means that China is likely to remain vague, experts say, particularly during the current period of heightened political sensitivity ahead of a leadership transition scheduled for later this year.

TRADITIONAL FISHING GROUNDS

However, this lack of clarity doesn't mean China's claims over South China Sea territory have less merit than other claimants, experts say.

In the case of Scarborough shoal, Beijing says the land is Chinese territory and the waters surrounding the shoal have been China's traditional fishing grounds for generations.

"This geographic proximity argument the Philippines is using is not necessarily good in international law," says Sam Bateman, a maritime security researcher at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University.

"If China can demonstrate sovereignty, its claim is as good as the Philippines'."

Under the provisions of UNCLOS, a nation with sovereignty over an island can claim a surrounding 12-nautical mile territorial sea.

UNCLOS defines an island as a natural land feature that remains above water at high tide. If the island is inhabitable, it is also entitled to an EEZ and possibly a continental shelf.

JOINT EXPLOITATION

However, Beijing has not claimed a territorial sea or an EEZ from any of the features of Scarborough Shoal.

Most maritime experts doubt China will agree to have any claims over the South China Sea heard by the United Nation's International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), the body set up to rule on disputes.

Beijing's policy is to negotiate on the joint exploitation of natural resources in contested areas but rival claimants are reluctant to accept this formula because it could be seen as recognition of China's sovereignty.

Beijing is also increasingly wary about the Obama administration's military "pivot" to Asia designed to counter China's growing power," security experts say.

They suggest Vietnam and the Philippines have already shown greater willingness to challenge China since the U.S. signaled a renewed interest in the region.

"They think they have the U.S. on side," said Bateman.

Sources: REUTERS and Eurasia Review

WORLD BANK: cites Philippines economic Growth continues even trying times


QUEZON CITY, MAY 26 (PIA) -- The World Bank (WB) cited the Philippine economy's growth amid challenges that the country is facing in the first and second quarter of the year.

"Amidst weakening markets for exports, the best prospects for the Philippines to maintain high growth rates, create more jobs, and reduce poverty are through greater investments in productivity-enhancing infrastructure and further economic integration with its trading partners," WB said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released early this week.

The report entitled "Capturing New Sources of Growth" projects that 2012 annual growth in the East Asia and the Pacific region will moderate to 7.6 percent with slower expansion in China pulling down the regional aggregate.

Excluding China, growth will increase to 5.2 percent as Thailand returns to normal levels of production. Commodity exporters, which experienced a boom in 2011, may be vulnerable in the event of a faster than anticipated slowdown in China, which could trigger an unexpected drop in commodity prices.

In 2011, East Asia and the Pacific Region grew by 8.2 percent (4.3 percent excluding China), a sharp decline from the nearly 10 percent growth rate recorded in 2010 (7.0 percent excluding China).

In the same year, growth was about 2 percentage points higher than the developing country average world-wide, and poverty continues to fall.

"The number of people living on less than US$ 2 a day is expected to decrease in 2012 by 24 million. Overall, the number of people living in poverty has been cut in half in the last decade in East Asia and Pacific," said Pamela Cox, World Bank East Asia and Pacific Regional Vice President.

The slowdown in 2011 was largely due to lower than expected growth in manufacturing exports as well as supply disruptions in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and severe flooding in Thailand. Domestic demand and investment were generally strong, aided by loosening of monetary policy in some countries.

The EU, along with the US and Japan, accounts for more than 40 percent of the region's exports, and European banks provide one-third of trade and project finance in Asia.

As external demand is likely to remain weak, countries in developing East Asia and Pacific need to rely less on exports and more on domestic demand to maintain high growth. Already, many countries are moving in this direction, but there is further scope for rebalancing.

"Some countries will need to stimulate household consumption. In others, enhanced investment, particularly in infrastructure, offers the potential to sustain growth provided this does not exacerbate domestic demand pressures," said Bryce Quillin, World Bank Economist and lead author of the report.

"With a changing financial sector in the aftermath of the financial crisis, new ways to finance higher levels of infrastructure investment need to be developed. Governments would need to focus on accelerating the preparation of infrastructure projects" Quillin added.(WB/RJB/JRCA-PIA-NCR)

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