Philippines v. China: Q. and A. on South China Sea Court Case

The Chinese Coast Guard confronted Filipino fishermen near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea last year. Credit Renato Etac/Associated Press

An international court in The Hague is scheduled to release a landmark ruling on Tuesday in a dispute between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea. Here are answers to six questions about the case.

What is this case about?

The Philippines filed a complaint in 2013 after China took control of a reef about 140 miles from the Philippine coast. It accused China of violating international law by interfering with fishing, endangering ships and failing to protect the marine environment at the reef, known as Scarborough Shoal.

But the Philippines also went further, asking an international tribunal to reject China’s claim to sovereignty over waters within a “nine-dash line” that appears on official Chinese maps. The dashes encircle as much as 90 percent of the South China Sea, an area the size of Mexico that is vital to global trade and rich in natural resources, including potential oil deposits.

The Philippines also accused China of violating international law by dredging sand to build artificial islands out of several reefs in the South China Sea, including one it says is in its waters.

What does international law say?

The Philippines filed its complaint under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which lays out rules for the use of the world’s oceans. The treaty came into force in 1994 and has been ratified by both China and the Philippines, as well as 165 other states and the European Union.

Islands are colored by occupying country: China, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam or Taiwan. Lines in the same colors show the extent of territorial claims. Photo: New York times

The treaty says a country has sovereignty over waters extending 12 nautical miles from its coast, and control over economic activities in waters on its continental shelf and up to 200 nautical miles from its coast, including fishing, mining, oil exploration and the construction of artificial islands.

The treaty sets out detailed rules for defining these zones, what to do when two nations’ zones overlap and how to resolve disputes.

China’s nine-dash line includes waters beyond these zones, and Beijing has cited what it calls historical evidence to support it.

The treaty does include exceptions for historic rights, but the Philippines says China’s claims in the South China Sea do not qualify.

The Obama administration has backed the Philippines on this question, saying historic rights can apply only to bays or other coastal waters, not the high seas. But the United States has not ratified the treaty.

China’s reclamation of Mischief Reef in the South China Sea. China has conducted enormous dredging operations to transform reefs into artificial islands with military runways. Credit Pool photo by Ritchie B. Tongo

What does China say?

China has boycotted the international tribunal that was set up to hear the case.

It says the panel of five judges and legal experts has no jurisdiction because the sovereignty of reefs, rocks and islands in the South China Sea is disputed.

The argument goes like this: If you don’t know what countries these specks of land belong to, you can’t use the treaty to draw territorial and economic zones in the waters around them. And the judges can’t decide whom the specks of land belong to because the Law of the Sea deals only with maritime disputes, not land disputes.

China also says it reached a deal with the Philippines years ago to settle disputes in the South China Sea through negotiations. That agreement, it says, prohibited the Philippines from taking the case to the tribunal.

Why is this case important?

In addition to China and the Philippines, five states — Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam — claim parts of the South China Sea. Their differences sometimes escalate into skirmishes, and people are worried that an incident could erupt into a broader conflict.

United States Navy sailors monitoring radar and other instruments aboard the guided-missile cruiser Chancellorsville in the South China Sea. Credit Bryan Denton for The New York Times

Tuesday’s ruling will be the first time an international tribunal has ruled on any of these disputes. It could set a precedent or establish principles for easing tensions. It could also alter the political dynamic in the region, restraining some countries while emboldening others.

China probably has the most at stake. Since the case was filed, it has conducted enormous dredging operations to transform reefs into artificial islands with military runways and naval harbors, over the objections of countries with competing claims as well as those of the United States. The tribunal could declare some of this construction illegal, or it could leave the question unresolved.

Either way, China’s response to the ruling will be seen as a test of what kind of country it is becoming — a global leader committed to international law and institutions, or a superpower willing to take unilateral action against its neighbors.

Why does the Chinese government care so much about the South China Sea?

Chinese military strategists say China needs to control the sea to defend itself, to push the United States out of the Western Pacific and to become a naval power.

China also depends on the shipping routes that go through the sea, and is eager to lay claim to oil and other resources to fuel its voracious economy.

There are domestic political factors, too. Chinese schoolchildren are taught that the sea has belonged to China since ancient times, and President Xi Jinping has used the construction of artificial islands in the sea to fan nationalist sentiment and strengthen his authority over the Chinese military.

What happens if the tribunal rules against China?

The Chinese government has said it will not “accept, recognize or execute” the decision.

While the ruling will be binding, the tribunal has no power to enforce it, and no one expects that China will volunteer to dismantle its artificial islands and return the sand to the ocean floor.

But the United States, the region’s dominant military power, could use the decision to justify more naval patrols in the area, to recruit new allies and give more support to old ones, and to rally world opinion against Beijing’s behavior.

While it will denounce the ruling in public, the Chinese leadership may decide to back off and begin easing tensions with neighboring countries. It could start with the new Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte, who says he wants to improve relations with China and has proposed talks on maritime cooperation.

But some analysts are worried that President Xi will respond instead with defiance.

Chinese diplomats have already suggested China might withdraw from the Convention on the Law of the Sea.

It could also begin transforming the reef at the center of the dispute, Scarborough Shoal, into a military outpost, risking a clash with the Philippines, an American ally.

And it might try to impose a new “air defense identification zone” over part of the South China Sea, asserting the right to identify, monitor and take military action against planes in the area.

Bryant Rousseau contributed research. A version of this article appears in print on July 11, 2016, on page A8 of the New York edition with the headline: Philippines v. China: Ruling Will Be a First on South China Sea.

The New York Times

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SolGen Calida to PNP: I will defend police in war on drugs

Solicitor General Jose Calida slammed Senator and former Justice Secretary Leila De Lima for allegedly planning to launch an “investigation in aid of media mileage” and not “in aid of legislation.” Jose Calida, Facebook; Philstar.com

Metro Manila (CNN Philippines) – Solicitor General Jose Calida said Monday police officers facing harassment cases in connection with the administration’s war on drugs can expect legal support from his office.

Calida made the statement after meeting Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Ronald Dela Rosa at Camp Crame. He said he will not allow anyone to obstruct the government's efforts to stop the drug menace in the country.

"I am here to encourage the PNP not to be afraid of any Congressional or Senate investigations,” Calida said. “We will defend them. If there is a fiscalizer, I am the neutralizer and the defender of the PNP.”

Calida was responding to a call by Sen. Leila De Lima, a former Justice Secretary, for a probe on the series of drug-related killings by the police.

De Lima has expressed alarm over daily reports of suspected drug dealers and even users killed in police operations. According to PNP, there were 103 suspects killed and 5,845 arrested from May 10 to July 3 in anti-illegal drugs operations.

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"What happened during her tenure?” Calida said. Answering his own question, he said, “Lalong lumakas ang proliferation of drugs even in her own turf."

[Translation: The proliferation of drugs worsened even in her own turf.]

He said De Lima apparently has not done enough to stop the drug menace as Justice Secretary in charge of the National Bureau of Investigation, the prosecution service and the correctional institutions. He said that the Senate probe on the killings is not principally intended to help stop drug trafficking.

“Hindi po ito (This is not an) investigation in aid of legislation. To me, I think, it is investigation in aid of media mileage,” he said.

“This is a serious situation now, hindi papogihan sa (it’s not to look good in the) media,” he said. “The police are risking their lives. It is the height of naiveté for Secretary De Lima, who apparently does not know the mind of a crazed drug addict."

He said there is always a “presumption of regularity” in all police operations, that's why De Lima's call for a hearing is based purely on hearsay. Presumption of regularity implies authorities follow the law, including police rules of engagement by shooting suspects only in self-defense.

Calida said during De Lima’s term as Justice Secretary, illegal drugs proliferated especially in the New Bilibid Prison. He said his office is considering filing charges against De Lima in connection with that. – CNN Philippines

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Mysterious Blast in Philippines Fuels Rodrigo Duterte's 'Hatred' of U.S.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s “hatred” for the U.S. is linked to a blast incident in a Davao City hotel room in 2002 involving a criminal suspect whom the American agents spirited away to Manila and then to the U.S. without the permission of the local government – Photo: AsiaTimes

MANILA — For more than a decade, a mysterious explosion at the Evergreen Hotel in Davao City has been a footnote in the long, checkered history between the Philippines and its former colonial master, the United States. But among those who never let it go was the city’s mayor, Rodrigo Duterte — who is now poised to become the Philippines’ new president.

In an interview last year before he announced his candidacy, Mr. Duterte went so far as to acknowledge “hatred” for the United States stemming from the obscure episode, when an American named Michael Terrence Meiring was charged with possession of explosives but managed to flee the Philippines.

Mr. Meiring called himself a treasure hunter and joked about being with the C.I.A., meaning “Christ in Action.” He told the hotel staff not to touch a metal box in his room, apparently with good reason. On May 16, 2002, the box exploded, mangling his legs and damaging the hotel.

But three days later, despite severe injuries and the charges against him, Mr. Meiring vanished from his hospital room. Philippine officials later said that men waving F.B.I. badges had taken him in the dark of night and flown him out of the country without their permission.

Mr. Duterte expressed outrage that the United States would help a criminal suspect leave the country without regard to Philippine law. He also fanned speculation that Mr. Meiring was involved in covert operations conducted by the United States in the Philippines.

Fourteen years later and scheduled to be sworn in as president on June 30, Mr. Duterte is still angry.

Last month, he threatened to cut ties with Washington in response to critical comments from the United States ambassador to the Philippines, Philip S. Goldberg. “Go ahead and sever it,” Mr. Duterte snapped, referring to diplomatic relations. His spokesman, Peter Laviña, explained that Mr. Duterte’s hostility originated with the Meiring case.

“Mayor Duterte has his own personal experience in Davao,” Mr. Laviña said in a television interview. “We were able to capture a bomber, a suspect in the bombing in Davao. He was an American. He was spirited away by the U.S. Embassy. I think that’s when the bad relations started.”

The Philippines has long been the United States’ closest ally in Southeast Asia. The two nations have a mutual defense pact, and the Philippines recently agreed to allow the Pentagon to station troops and weapons at bases in the country. For more than a decade, American forces have also trained and advised Philippine soldiers hunting the Abu Sayyaf, a gang of rebel kidnappers operating in the southern islands that recently swore allegiance to the Islamic State.

Davao City is the most populous city in the south, and a pair of bombings there killed 38 people in 2003. But Mr. Duterte, its mayor for the past 20 years, has long expressed skepticism about the American military presence. In 2013, he said he had blocked an American proposal to base drones at Davao City’s old airport, citing his concerns about the Meiring case.

“I do not want it,” he was quoted saying in local news media. “I do not want trouble and killings. They will only add to the problem.”

Aides to Mr. Duterte did not respond to requests for comment. But in the interview in which he discussed the case last year, Mr. Duterte said that his “hatred” for the United States was a “personal” sentiment that he could set aside in the national interest. He also said, though, that his anger over the Meiring case had not diminished.

A spokesman for the United States Embassy, Kurt Hoyer, said it would have no comment on the drone proposal, the Meiring affair, or how the episode might affect relations with the incoming president. He said an embassy press statement in 2002 was the final word on the case, but was unable to provide it.

In the statement, according to published reports, the embassy acknowledged that F.B.I. agents went to the Evergreen Hotel to investigate the explosion but “categorically” denied that the agency “had any role in Mr. Meiring’s departure.”

The Meiring affair has long been the subject of conspiracy theories in the Philippines. Much remains unexplained, including why there were explosives in Mr. Meiring’s room and who mounted the operation that helped him escape.

“Why should the U.S. take him out of the country? That’s the puzzle,” said a former high-ranking Philippine intelligence official who declined to be identified because he was not directly involved in the case.

According to news reports, Mr. Meiring had been going to Davao City on the island of Mindanao for many years, usually staying in the same suite at the Evergreen. He had documents allowing him to hunt for treasure — which was believed to have been left by occupying Japanese forces during World War II — and an identity card allowing him to travel in territory held by separatist Islamic rebels.

At the time, the southern Philippines was plagued by armed conflict with the rebels and occasional bombings, including a blast a month earlier that killed 15 people in the city of General Santos, about 90 miles south of Davao City.

When the police first questioned Mr. Meiring about the explosion at the Evergreen, he said someone had thrown a grenade into his room. But investigators quickly found conclusive evidence that the blast was caused by explosives in his room, according to the police file, including the remains of two 6-volt batteries, an electric blasting cap and a circuit board.

Doctors amputated one of Mr. Meiring’s legs, but he was taken from the hospital and flown from Davao by charter plane, the police said at the time. He received medical treatment in Manila and left the country soon after.

Witnesses said that the men who took him from the hospital displayed F.B.I. badges. The hospital’s owner told reporters that he agreed to release Mr. Meiring despite his injuries after American officials promised to issue a work visa for his daughter, a nurse.

Mr. Meiring returned to the United States, where he also went by the family name Vande-Meer. He died in 2012 at 76, public records show, without ever telling his story publicly. His former wife, Angela, contacted by phone, declined to discuss his time in the Philippines.

A Davao City court official, who had not been informed of Mr. Meiring’s death, said there was still an outstanding warrant for his arrest on charges of illegal possession of explosives and reckless imprudence resulting in damage to property.

There has long been unsubstantiated speculation in the Philippines that Mr. Meiring was responsible for bombings in the turbulent region as part of a covert American operation aimed at gathering intelligence on the rebels or prompting the Philippine government to approve greater United States military assistance.

But a former C.I.A. official who served in the Philippines discounted the possibility that Mr. Meiring was a C.I.A. operative. While the former official was not familiar with details of the Meiring case, he said keeping explosives in his hotel room and joking about “Christ in Action” would be obvious violations of agency protocol.

Ramon Casiple, the executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, a nonprofit organization promoting democracy in the Philippines, said the burden would be on Washington to win Mr. Duterte’s trust, perhaps starting with an explanation of what happened at the Evergreen Hotel.

“He will try to improve relations with the U.S. but it is really more of the U.S. building relations with him,” Mr. Casiple said. “As far as he is concerned, the U.S. record in Mindanao is not that good.”

A version of this article appears in print on May 14, 2016, on page A6 of the New York edition with the headline: Mysterious Blast in Philippines Shaped Presumptive Leader’s View of U.S.

-       The New York Times

 

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Philippine PDEA Seized ₱1.4-Billion Worth illegal drugs and 2 Labs with Taiwanese in South Manila

A PDEA agent inspects chemicals and equipment used in manufacturing illegal drugs during a raid in Pamplona 2, Las Piñas City on Tuesday night. JOVEN CAGANDE

Las Piñas raid nets ₱1.4-B shabu

Operatives of the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) arrested three Taiwanese nationals and seized more than ₱1.4 billion worth of shabu, chemicals and laboratory equipment at a clandestine drug laboratory in Las Piñas City and a warehouse in Parañaque on Tuesday night 5^th July 2016.

Wilkins Villanueva, director of the PDEA National Capital Region Office, identified the three arrested suspects as Shi Ming Tsai, Kuo Chuan Cheng and Chun Ming Lin.

Tsai and Cheng, both suspected chemists, were arrested in a house that was turned into a shabu laboratory in Barangay Pamplona Dos in Las Piñas at around 6 p.m. after the PDEA agents enforced a search warrant issued by Judge Fernando Sagun of the Quezon City Regional Trial Court Branch 98.

Around 49 kilos of shabu, placed inside pails, 298 kilos of suspected liquid methamphetamine and laboratory equipment were seized inside the house.

Newly appointed PDEA chief Isidro Lapeña joined the operation in Las Piñas.

After the successful operation, PDEA agents also dismantled a shabu storage facility located at BF Homes, Parañaque City at around 7:30 p.m.

Lin was arrested inside the warehouse where 10 kilos of suspected shabu and around 200 kilos of suspected ephedrine were found.

Villanueva said ephedrine, an ingredient in the making of shabu, was stored in Parañaque and brought to the house in Las Piñas for processing into shabu crystals.

The manufactured drugs would then be brought to the Parañaque warehouse for storage before distribution to dealers in Metro Manila and Central Luzon, he added.

Villanueva said PDEA agents conducted surveillance operations in the area for about a month before the raid.

Investigators said a Taiwanese family has been renting the house in Las Piñas.

13 suspected pushers killed

Eight suspected drug pushers were gunned down last Tuesday and Wednesday during alleged shootouts with policemen in various parts of the country while unidentified suspects killed seven more alleged pushers.

Media reports showed that there were about 85 people killed in drug-related police operations from May 10 to July 6. Of the 85 slain suspects, 31 were shot dead from July 1 to 6 or during the first six days of the Duterte administration.

Caloocan City policemen shot dead yesterday two alleged drug pushers during separate encounters.

Investigators said policemen responded to a call through Emergency Hotline 117 that three men were suspiciously roaming around Barangay 59 at 3 a.m.

The police spotted suspect Michael Liwanag and his two companions along R. David Street and when the officers approached them, the trio ran toward a nearby house owned by Norayda Coloma.

Liwanag entered the house and fired gunshots at the policemen who fired back and killed the suspect.

Another suspected pusher, Roberto Dominguez, was killed last Tuesday night by policemen investigating the illegal drug trade along Burgos Street in Barangay 15.

Initial police report showed that policemen spotted Dominguez along Burgos Street and tried to question him.

Dominguez, however, fled and ran to a house and shot at the police officers.

The policemen fired back, killing the suspect who yielded a caliber .38 revolver, five small plastic bags of shabu and drug paraphernalia.

Two suspected drug pushers were shot dead by police authorities in separate encounters in Camarines Norte and Legazpi City last Tuesday.

Supt. Wilmor Halamani, Daet police chief, said an undercover policeman shot dead suspect Christian Roy during a buy-bust operation in Barangay Magang.

In Legazpi City, Michael Almayda was shot dead after a shootout with police during another entrapment operation in Purok 3 Barangay 42 in Legazpi City.

Almayda's three companions, identified as Edgardo Almayda, Nino Almayda and Norby Alzaga, were arrested.

Seized from the suspects were 12 plastic bags of shabu and a caliber .38 revolver.

Manila policemen killed a drug pusher that also snatched cell phones in San Andres, Manila.

Police officer 3 John Teddy Siguen, who was investigating cellphone robbery cases, shot dead Conrado Beroña III in his house at 2323 Tenorio Street in San Andres last Tuesday.

Investigators recovered nine sachets of suspected shabu from the suspect's house.

Siquen said they were following up two cellphone robberies and tracked down the suspect's location through the global positioning system (GPS) in one of the stolen phones.

Policemen went to Berona's house but the suspect fired at the policemen, who fired back and killed the suspect.

Two persons were killed in separate shootouts during anti-illegal drug operations by the Quezon City police yesterday and Tuesday.

Artemio Aclan was gunned down along Algao St., Barangay Tatalon at around 11:30 a.m. while police were conducting Oplan Kapak (Katok Pakiusap) on Tuesday.

Investigation disclosed that police spotted Aclan while they were scouring the area for drug dependents.

Sensing the presence of operatives, Aclan reportedly ran to his house, got his handgun and fired at the police officers.

He was killed after a brief firefight with police. A improvised caliber .38 revolver and 12 sachets of shabu were recovered from Aclan's house.

A still unidentified drug suspect was killed in a shootout along Feliciano Street in Barangay Pasong Putik at around 2:30 a.m. yesterday.

The suspect, described by police as around 20-25 years old and 5'3" in height, was shot dead while his cohort was able to elude arrest.

Police reportedly responded to a tip about illegal drug activities in the area when they saw two men on their motorcycles.

When police officers approached the suspects, the two suddenly drew their handguns and fired at the lawmen.

This led to a brief firefight, resulting in the death of one of the suspects while the other escaped.

In Dagupan City, a suspected drug dealer was shot dead in a buy-bust operation Tuesday night in Barangay Tebeng.

Dagupan police Supt. Christopher Abrahano said Oscar Abella, who was included in the watch list of the Barangay Anti Drug Abuse Council of Barangay Pantal, pulled out a gun and fired at the police undercover agent who fired back.

Motorcycle-riding gunmen shot dead Marvin Toston, a suspected pusher, at the corner of Gabriel and Claudio streets in Baclaran, Parañaque City yesterday.

In Nueva Ecija, five suspected drug pushers were killed by unidentified men in the past four days, police said.

Senior Supt. Manuel Cornel, provincial police director, said the slain suspects were identified as Mirasol Lavapie Ramos of Talavera town, Jessie Junarez of San Antonio town, Daniel Javier of San Leonardo, Raffy Francisco of Sto. Domingo and a certain Bernie of San Jose City.

A lone gunman shot dead Ramos in a barbecue stand in Talavera.

Police said five men took Junarez from his house last Wednesday in San Antonio. The victim was later found dead.

In San Jose City, Police Officer 1 Danilo Lorilla Jr. shot dead the suspect identified only as Bernie.

Bernie alleged shot at Lorilla who fired back and killed the suspect.

Police said Javier was found dead in San Leonardo town while the body of Francisco was recovered in Sto. Domingo.

In Cagayan, Senior Insp. Antonio Palattao, police chief of Allacapan town, said an unidentified gunman shot dead suspected drug pusher Norman Tacal during a drinking session in Barangay San Juan last Tuesday.

Meanwhile, 217 drug pushers and users surrendered to authorities in Valenzuela City since July 1, while 75 other professed addicts yielded in Mandaluyong City. - With Perseus Echeminada, Cecille Suerte Felipe, Ghio Ong, Mike Frialde, Francis Elevado, Celso Amo, Raymund Catindig, Eva Visperas - philSTAR

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Global Demand for Nickel or Destruction of the Philippine mountains?

Mining heavily destroyed the paradise Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte planned on closing all mining in the Philippines. Philippines as world’s largest supplier of nickel; how to suffice the global demand of Nickel if the Philippines would closing down? Photo: ndfp.org

Nickel Falls Most in Eight Weeks on Philippines Supply Outlook

Nickel fell the most in eight weeks on speculation that the government may take longer than expected to close mines that don’t meet environmental rules in the Philippines, the biggest supplier of ore to China.

The metal used in stainless steel advanced 12 percent last month on concern that shipments from the Philippines to China will be disrupted as a new government enforces standards. While Environment Secretary Gina Lopez said an audit of mining operations will be completed in three to four weeks, speculation mounted on the timing of any closures.

“Now doubts have arisen as to whether those mines in the Philippines that are failing to meet the necessary environmental standards could really be shut down in the near future,” Commerzbank AG analysts including Daniel Briesemann said in a note.

Nickel for delivery in three months slipped 4.8 percent to settle at $9,705 a metric ton at 5:52 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, the biggest loss since May 9.

‘Take Time’

“It will take time for the Philippines to eventually shut the mines and cut supplies,” Jia Zheng, a metal trader with Soochow Futures Co., said by phone from Shanghai. “Ultimately, China can diversify by purchasing from regions like Africa.”

Copper for delivery in three months slipped 1.6 percent in London. Zinc, lead and tin also declined on the LME, while aluminum rose.

A gauge of 18 global base metal producers tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence declined 3.9 percent, the first loss in more than a week. Phoenix-based Freeport-McMoRan Inc. led declines, slipping 8 percent. — With assistance by Luzi-Ann Javier, Winnie Zhu, and Kevin Crowley : Bloomberg

Can You Spare a Nickel, Mr. Duterte?

Nickel has been the worst performer of the London Metal Exchange's six major metals over the past year. The key ingredient in stainless steel, which topped $50,000 a metric ton in 2007, has barely risen above $10,000 in eight months.Between 60 percent and 70 percent of producers are losing money at current prices, Ivan Glasenberg, chief executive of the fourth-biggest producer, Glencore, told an investor call in December.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

In trying to deal a blow to a mining industry he accuses of "spoiling the land," Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, also known as the "Punisher," may have just done global producers a favor.SHARE OF NICKEL PRODUCERS LOSING MONEY60-70%Nickel traded on the LME rose at the fastest pace in more than eight months Monday. The proximate cause was Duterte's new environment and natural resources minister, Gina Lopez, who said miners that don't pass an environmental audit to be completed in three to four weeks face suspension. Less than a third currently meet international standards, Lopez said last week.

Not a Nickel to Spare

The Philippines is by far the biggest producer of the stainless steel alloy. 2015 mine output by country.

The news isn't exactly a bolt from the blue. Duterte has been a longstanding critic of mining companies, passing a law to enforce a ban on them in his home city of Davao while he was mayor. It moved the market because the Philippines is far and away the biggest producer of mined nickel, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, overtaking Indonesia since that country banned exports of metal ores in an attempt to encourage a local smelting industry.The Philippine nickel industry is dominated by small-scale local producers, so Lopez's comments will if anything give global mining companies a long-overdue reason to be cheerful.

More Losses Than Profits

Vale's nickel unit has recorded an aggregate $2.1 billion of losses over the past decade

Vale, the biggest miner, has posted an aggregate $2.1 billion in losses on its nickel unit over the past decade. BHP's Nickel West operation, the third-biggest producer according to Bloomberg Intelligence data, is still operating largely because the costs of closure are greater than the losses that may be incurred from keeping it running, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Mackenzie told an investor call in February.

Coming Up Short

The global nickel market is forecast to head into deficit this year

It's going to take a lot to lift nickel prices from the doldrums, but a shutdown in the Philippines could be just the ticket. The International Nickel Study Group is already forecasting that demand will exceed supply in 2016 for the first time in five years, by 49,000 tons or 2.5 percent of consumption. While the Philippines may be unlikely to close two-thirds of its nickel mines, modeling a production drop on that scale is a useful thought experiment. With 350,000 tons of output quitting the market, supply would be left 21 percent short of demand. That would be more than enough to put a fire under prices. By David Fickling - Bloomberg.

To contact the author of this story: David Fickling in Sydney at dfickling@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Matthew Brooker at mbrooker1@bloomberg.net

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Philippine Economy Signs Point to Continue under President Duterte Administration

Bonifacio Global City C3 Block, Taguig City, Metro Manila, Philippines. Bonifacio Global City has been expanded to include this new block as the high end part of the area. This are contains some restaurants as well as some well known high-end brands of clothing and accessories. This block also features the new Dolby Atom and 4-D cinemas. Photo:ryancapulong.com

Signs point to continued growth under Duterte

President Rodrigo Duterte and former President Benigno Aquino present a study in contrasts in leadership styles. The question is whether the differences in personality will affect the politics, policies and, ultimately, the economic performance of the Philippines.

The new government will be formulating its economic and fiscal strategies against a favorable economic and fiscal backdrop. Average real gross domestic product growth since Aquino took office in mid-2010 has been higher than in any previous administration since the 1986 "People Power" revolution. During the January-March quarter of 2016, national government debt fell to its lowest level as a share of GDP since 1997.

These favorable factors led to the Philippines' sovereign credit rating rising by four notches to Baa2 from Ba3 during Aquino's six-year term. Notably, the country's rating went to investment-grade for the first time in 2013.

STAYING THE COURSE

Duterte's party has outlined a 10-point economic agenda that underscores broad policy continuity. The agenda's primary emphasis is on maintaining current macroeconomic policies, and also builds on the key themes emphasized by the Aquino administration, such as ensuring the attractiveness of the Philippines to foreign investors, enhancing tax administration and accelerating infrastructure development.

In line with the anti-establishment bent of his electoral campaign, Duterte has also emphasized that he will focus on more inclusive growth, as seen by his agenda's inclusion of more support for agriculture and education, and the expansion of transfers to low-income households.

The most radical departure that Duterte has indicated he would make from Aquino's economic policy is his willingness to liberalize foreign investment restrictions via changes to the 1987 Constitution. Limits in this area have contributed to the Philippines' low levels of foreign direct investment relative to other countries. The easing of ownership restrictions could significantly support medium-term economic growth.

The credit implications of any future policies for the country will only become apparent over the coming months. In particular, the new government has signaled its willingness to tolerate wider fiscal deficits to accommodate more spending. However, this would entail stepping up public spending -- a departure from the persistent underspending that has contributed to narrow fiscal deficits for much of the past six years.

Indeed, between 2010 and 2015, the Philippines recorded one of the narrowest deficits among emerging countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. In fact, the Philippines was the only country in the bloc to record a fall in general government debt as a share of GDP over that time.

Notwithstanding the impact of any imminent shifts in fiscal policy, growth should remain robust through at least the next two years, and the Philippine central bank will likely maintain its focus on sustaining macroeconomic and financial stability.

Unlike many other more commodity-dependent emerging markets, the Philippines has not experienced a negative terms of trade shock from the turn in commodity prices since 2014. Also, lower prices for energy and food imports have stimulated private consumption, which reached a multiyear high in 2015.

At the same time, rapidly growing services exports and healthy domestic demand have proved resilient to negative spillover from the slowing of the Chinese economy.

POLITICAL RISK

When it comes to sovereign credit ratings, credit analysts have to deal with the assessment of political stability.

As for whether a government under Duterte will be stable, his clear victory in the May election is comparable to Aquino's 15.8-percentage-point advantage during the 2010 polls, and is supportive of political stability. Moreover, a majority of legislators in the House of Representatives are said to align themselves with Duterte, further bolstering the prospects of reform.

The margins of victory in 2010 and 2016 stand in contrast to the 3.5-percentage-point win by Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in the 2004 presidential vote. Combined with subsequent allegations of cheating, Arroyo's narrow margin contributed to recurring challenges to her electoral legitimacy, including attempted coups, impeachment complaints and a mass resignation of cabinet secretaries in 2005.

The Arroyo administration was marked by declining scores in the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators, including those for political stability and the absence of violence, control of corruption and rule of law.

The WGI provide some useful angles to assess the quality of governance across a wide set of countries according to six dimensions: voice and accountability; political stability and absence of violence; government effectiveness; regulatory quality; rule of law; and control of corruption.

These indicators have generally improved since 2010, reflecting the Aquino administration's emphasis on good governance. Over the past few years, policymaking -- such as the budgetary process -- has become more transparent and predictable. The government has also worked toward deregulation to enhance ease of doing business.

The introduction of a competition law has also helped to level the playing field in the private sector. This situation has in turn contributed to stronger investor confidence and economic performance, as well as higher credit ratings.

Duterte's campaign emphasized law and order issues, and burnished the mayor's reputation for being tough on crime and corruption -- a stance somewhat aligned with the "straight path" that Aquino has espoused. However, the new president's comments promoting an extrajudicial approach to addressing crime, for instance, have attracted widespread criticism and could weigh on such elements of governance as the rule of law, political stability and the absence of violence.

We will soon find out whether Duterte's more controversial pronouncements on the campaign trail will translate into actual policy, and if the improving trend in governance will continue. – Nikkei Asia Review

Christian de Guzman is a vice president and senior credit officer for Moody's Investors Service.

 

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Arlington grad Beram the fastest in the Philippines

Philippine- American Trenten Beram. Goal's to represent the Philippines in 2020 Olympics

One step at a time.

It's not so much about speed as it is precision and making incremental progress. That's an unusual tactic for an elite sprinter, but slow-and-steady seems to work for Trenten Beram.

At least when it comes to his Rosetta Stone software. The 20-year-old Hopewell Junction resident is using the computer program to learn Filipino. In Beram's estimation, he must become comfortable enough with the language to at least mouth the words to the national anthem.

After all, he is a track and field record-holder in that country and, now, a member of its national team. He'd prefer not to be the "American" smiling awkwardly as the anthem of the Philippines is played before international competition.

The former Arlington High School standout set a record last month for the fastest 200 meters in Philippines' history. He competed in the Philippine Athletics Track and Field Association Trials in Pasig, completing the race in 21.12 seconds on June 24. His time surpassed the mark of 21.17, set by Ralph Waldy Soguilon in 2007.

"It's great and this means a lot to me," Beram said, though he began to chuckle. "I would've never imagined I would set a record. It's kind of hard to believe that no other Filipino has ever run faster than this."

Beram's time in the PATAFA Trials, though a record, was short of the Olympic qualifying standard of 20.5 seconds so he will not compete in Rio de Janeiro next month. But Beram did earn a spot on Team Philippines, which will compete in the Southeast Asian Games in Malaysia in August 2017. There, he plans to run the 200 and be part of the 400-meter relay.

It's an accomplishment that his father, Glen Beram, joked will often be retold and even embellished in stories to great-grandchildren someday. Trenten dedicated the race to his paternal grandmother, Sandy Beram, who died on June 16.

"I'm proud but not surprised because we knew how talented he was from early on," Arlington track and field coach Steve Arnett said. "He's meticulous. Just watching him warm up and run drills, everything was always precise and textbook. He's a force to be reckoned with and he always has that determined look, like James Bond."

From the Philippines, with love.

​Beram was born in Scarsdale and grew up in Hopewell Junction. He picked up track in the 11th grade at Arlington but immediately excelled, breaking several Dutchess County records and earning All-American honors.

Trenten's father is American but his mother, Nena Beram, was born in the Philippines and moved to the United States when she was 3. Trenten visited the Philippines only a few times as a child, but his ancestry enabled him to apply for citizenship to the country, which then allowed him to compete.

Trenten first applied for citizenship to the Philippines last November. He and his mother traveled there to the Bureau of Immigration and spent hours completing paperwork. They went back on June 9 and the process was finalized on June 13, while Trenten was training for the race.

The wheels first were put in motion three years ago, though, when the Berams were contacted by a track recruiter from the Philippines who floated the idea of him gaining dual citizenship and competing internationally. The family was put in touch with the president of PATAFA, Philip Ella Juico, who urged Trenten to represent his mother's native land. After a series of email exchanges and two years of college, the Berams agreed.

Trenten said he was battling a minor hamstring strain when he set the record and that time wasn't even his personal best. He had run the 200 in 21 seconds last year while competing for the University of Connecticut. But that didn't count as the record, because he wasn't yet a Filipino citizen.

He got back to New York on Saturday, and he intends to return to UConn in the fall for his junior year, continue studies for his mathematics major, and compete as a collegiate sprinter. His ultimate goal, however, is to qualify for the Olympics in 2020, representing the Philippines.

"Being an Olympian is not something that just comes along and most athletes never get the opportunity," he said. "It would be huge. It's one of the greatest honors that anyone can achieve. I'd want to win, obviously, but I wouldn't worry so much about how I do there. Just getting there would be a big accomplishment."

Just reaching this stage in track and field already is a big accomplishment. Beram played baseball in high school and was a defensive standout in centerfield for the Admirals. "Not to brag," he said, "but I made some really nice catches in the outfield." Well, given his speed, one can imagine he had exceptional range.

It was on the suggestion of teammates, in passing, that he try out for the indoor track team to keep himself occupied in the winter and prepare for baseball in the spring.

"I made nationals my first (season) in track and I started getting college offers," Beran said. "I was blown away. I was thinking, 'This never happened in baseball, so I should probably stick with (the) sport.'"

Glen Beram, a fitness buff who operates a gym, said he knew his son would be fast when he playfully challenged his 7-year-old to a race, and lost.

After the conversion to track, Trenten soon set school and county records in the 55, 60, 200 and 400 meters, and the 300-yard sprint, according to Arnett, whom Beram credits for improving his strength and stamina. He never did return to baseball.

"My first impression of him was like the reaction when you see a Lamborghini parked," Arnett said. "You can just look and tell it's fast. Within three weeks, he was our fastest runner. He had something special and there was no hiding that."

Though Trenten didn't spend much time in the Philippines, aside from visiting three times as a small child, he was never far removed from the culture. His grandmother, Carmen Manugas, would visit often. Trenten said he remembers her singing him Filipino lullabies and making his favorite dish, congee, a traditional rice porridge.

"The poverty level was so high that even though my kids were young, they were moved by how little the kids in the Philippines had," Glen Beram said. "Every day was a struggle. It left an impression on them, how lucky we were. I think Trenten wanting to represent the Philippines was a byproduct of him remembering that." - Poughkeepsie Journal

Stephen Haynes: shaynes@poughkeepsiejournal.com, 845-437-4826, Twitter: @StephenHaynes4

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Philippines basketball put a scare into France in Olympics qualifying opener, but fall short

The Philippines' Andray Blache attempts a shot against France in their Olympic qualifying contest on tuesday night. Bullit Marquez / AP Photo / July 5, 2016

The Philippines national basketball team brought a tough challenge to France on Tuesday night in their Olympic basketball qualifying opener, but ultimately fell short 93-84 against a well-stocked side featuring NBA stars like Tony Parker and Boris Diaw.

The Gilas Pilipinas went into half-time down merely two, on the strength of strong three-point shooting and the active inside presence of naturalised player Andray Blatche. Despite flurries they could not mount a meaningful comeback in the second half after France pulled away in the third quarter.

The Philippines were aggressive early, with shotmakers like Terrence Romeo heaving audaciously as, playing on home court in Manila, they were undeterred by the prospect of a French side ranked fifth in the world by Fiba.

The Philippines are hosting one of three Olympic qualifying mini tournaments to determine the final three places in Rio. Six teams at each of the three venues are divided into three-team groups from which they will be seeded into the semi-final stages. Only the winner at each site will qualify for the Olympics.

The Philippines will get a chance to keep their hopes alive when they play New Zealand next. Canada, Turkey and Senegal lie on the other side of the bracket, with Canada defeating the Turkish team 77-69 in their opener on Tuesday night as well. The other two tournaments are in Belgrade, Serbia and Turin, Italy.

In their loss, the Philippines struggled to contain San Antonio Spurs guard Parker, who finished with 21 points.

They showed they could go long stretches with France shot-for-shot, however. They made 11-of-28 three-point attempts, good for a solid 39.3 percentage. Romeo had 19 points on 5-of-14 shooting. Stalwart point guard Jayson Castro had 14 points and three assists, and former NBA big man Blatche added 21 points and eight rebounds.

The French, though, also led by CSKA Moscow’s Nando de Colo scoring 27 points and Diaw’s nine-point, nine-rebound effort, went on a 14-4 run in the middle of the third quarter that the Filipinos simply never really recovered from.

Troy Rosario, Castro and Gabe Norwood hit shots in succession as the fourth quarter wound down to get the Philippines back within four, but Diaw and Kim Tillie overwhelmed them inside late.

The Gilas will try their hand again on Wendesday night at 5pm UAE time (9pm local Manila time) against the New Zealanders.

Tony Parker: We had to dig deep to beat the Philippines

French national basketball team bested Gilas Pilipinas 93-84 in their first game at the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament (OQT), but it definitely wasn’t the demolition job that some expected before the game. Photo: CNN

The French national basketball team bested Gilas Pilipinas 93-84 in their first game at the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament (OQT), but it definitely wasn’t the demolition job that some expected before the game.

After the game, NBA guard Tony Parker only had good things to say about the Philippine team.

“I want to congratulate the Philippines. They had a great game, they were on fire in the first half,” said Parker. “You have to give a lot of credit to them, you can be proud about the team. They played a great game.”

“They made it tough on us, and we had to dig deep to get the W,” Parker added.

“They were pretty good, they were very aggressive,” said Parker on his counterparts. “They were very aggressive going to the basket and creating shots for their teammates.” – The National / CNN

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Philippines' President Duterte names and shames 5 Generals over alleged drug links - Evidence hold

Philippines’ Duterte names and shames five top cops over alleged drug links

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on Tuesday publicly named five top police officials he said should be investigated for involvement in illegal drugs.

The president, who won elections in May by promising a ruthless war on crime, was making good on an earlier threat to publicly shame officers who were involved in or protecting the illegal drug trade.

“I order them relieved of their assignments and report to the [national police] director-general who would like to talk to them,” he said in a speech to the air force.

He also ordered the police commission to investigate the five, adding: “Don’t give me a song and dance. Find the truth.”

He said information on the alleged involvement of the five in drugs had undergone “so many validations” but he did not elaborate on the evidence against them.

National police spokesmen could not be contacted for comment.

One of the retired police generals named by Duterte told ABS-CBN television that he was innocent, protesting that he was being subjected to “trial by publicity”.

Duterte also reiterated his call for the return of the death penalty as well as his vow to pursue a campaign against illegal drugs.

Scores of suspected drug dealers have been shot dead by police since Duterte won the May 9 elections.

He has previously called on police to kill drug dealers and even urged the public and communist rebels to join in.

In his speech, Duterte stressed, “Many more will die ... It’s going to be a dirty fight, it’s going to be a bloody fight. I’m not apologising for it.”

The president, who has been linked to vigilante death squads that rights groups said killed more than a thousand people when he was mayor of the southern city of Davao, told security forces he would “assume full legal responsibility” for the campaign.

He also said the military should join the effort, adding he would need 3,000 more policemen to crack down on crime.

Duterte has made fighting crime the centrepiece of his administration, brushing aside human rights concerns over possible abuses.

Last weekend, Duterte’s newly appointed national police chief, Director-General Ronald Dela Rosa ordered police officers linked to narcotics trafficking to surrender by Sunday or be killed. - SCMP

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A monsoon of music hits the Philippines

OneRepublic performs at MTV Music Evolution Manila 2016. Photo: MTV Asia & Kris Rocha

MTV Music Evolution Manila's a thriller featuring APINK, Far East Movement and OneRepublic

Last year the Philippines capital saw some of the biggest names in hip hop, like Naughty by Nature and the Black Eyed Peas' Apl.de.ap, taking centre stage before tens of thousands at MTV Music Evolution Hip Hop 2015. 

This year, as part of their MTV World Stage Series, MTV Music Evolution returned to Manila on Friday of late last month with a new theme, "Can't Stop Moving", celebrating the evolution of pop music and its recent dance influence through an extraordinary local and international line-up.

Despite torrential rains, music fans, armed with ponchos and umbrellas, danced and sang their hearts out to six electric performances by Filipino pop king Gary V accompanied by his son Gab Valenciano, rising star couple James Reid and Nadine Lustre, top Korean girl band APINK, chart-topping singer-songwriter Bebe Rexha, and anticipated headliners Far East Movement and OneRepublic.

Starting off with a bang as fireworks exploded above the gigantic diamond-shaped stage, MTV Asia VJs Alan Wong and Hanli Hoefer, and MTV Pinoy VJs Yassi Pressman and Andre Paras, riled up the rain-drenched crowd as they introduced the first act, Gary V. The equivalent of Thailand's P'Bird, the 51-year-old local pop legend (who looks amazing for his age) filled the concert grounds with the holy gong sounds of the Philippine traditional instrument kulintang. Getting the audience to dance to their traditional beats, he then launched into some of his most famous hits, such as Shake It Off and Arise while busting out perfect Michael Jackson-like choreography with his backup dancers.

APINK. Photo: Kristian Dowling

A fitting start to the concert as a tribute to early-Philippines pop music, Gary V was then joined by his son Gab Valenciano, a choreographer and dancer whose viral YouTube videos inspired Beyonce’s 7/11music video. Dancing and singing in the rain without a flaw, the duo encouraged their fellow Pinoys to follow their dreams, as their country, without a doubt, is home to some of the world's most talented singers and dancers.

With the rain subsiding, up next in pop evolution was rising Pinoy stars James Reid and Nadine Lustre (think if Nadech and Yaya were actually a couple who are actually accomplished singers). Taking turns singing solos and duets, JaDine, as the Pinoys call them, hammed their love up for the enthralled audience to the point that, as a non-local, it got a bit too awkward to watch. Their vocals and choreography, however, were unsurprisingly on point.

Brooklyn-based singer-songwriter Bebe Rexha took the stage next with full-on energy and force. Though probably still not a household name, you've definitely heard her music on the radio. She wrote Eminem and Rihanna's The Monster, which made her career. She's lent her voice to David Guetta's Hey Mama, and she wrote G-Eazy's hook for Me, Myself And I, all of which she performed in stripped-down versions, showing off how powerful her vocals really are. Despite technical issues with her microphone due to the downpour, it can easily be said that the 26-year-old sounds much better live than on her studio tracks. Her striking voice and stage presence make her one of the strongest up-and-coming stars in pop music.

Korean girl band APINK surprisingly generated the most noise from the audience, men and women of all ages swooning over the sailor-dressed girls. The thunderous welcome, however, isn't surprising once you realise the Philippines is the third-largest consumer of K-pop in the world. They gave a performance of exactly what you would expect from a top K-pop group -- fine-tuned choreography and perfect vocal harmonies, with audiences singing and chanting along very, very loudly.

Far East Movement. Photo: FERDIE ARQUERO

As the rain finally stopped after the third hour, Far East Movement then turned the concert grounds into an EDM rave, revving up the audience to a climax with reworked versions of their most famous tracks -- G6, Illest and Push -- along with impressive laser shows, and James Roh, aka Prohgress, crowd-surfing and throwing emoji inflatables to the audience.

Finishing their act, audiences waited restlessly for another half-hour while being entertained by the MTV VJs as the most anticipated headliner set up its gear. "I think God is smiling on us," said OneRepublic lead vocalist Ryan Tedder as he got onstage. "It cooled down. It's night. It's not raining. This is perfect!".

James Reid and Nadine Lustre. Photo: MTV Asia & Kristian Dowling

OneRepublic, the multi-platinum, Grammy-nominated quintet played hit after hit, like Counting Stars, Stop And Stare and Good Life, as audience members danced and sang along loudly. The most memorable moment, though, was an intimate rendering of their most famous song, Apologize, as Tedder sang soulfully on the piano, accompanied by Brent Kutzle on cello. His voice, like Bebe Rexha's, is definitely better live than on the audio track. As the last song was announced, audiences moaned in despair, but sang cheerfully anyway, screaming with excitement and awe as fireworks and confetti took over the stage and sky for a perfect ending.

MTV Music Evolution Manila 2016 did a lot of things right. It had an amazing stage with impressive visuals and strategically placed screens. It had crazy lights that accompanied the acts, a great sound system despite the uncooperative weather, and swift set changes with the MTV VJS skilfully entertaining and playing games with the audience in between.

Bebe Rexha. Photo: MTV Asia & Kristian Dowling

Most impressive of all was the crowd, waiting in line for hours before the show started, then dancing at the concert for another six, three of them in the pouring monsoon rain. It's a testament to the Filipinos' collective passion for music and partying. So it wouldn't be a surprise if the MTV World Stage Series returns next year for an even better concert. Let's just hope that the Thai music scene can reach this level of awesome soon.

"MTV Music Evolution: Manila Asia Special" will premiere on MTV on July 19 at 11pm Bangkok time with reruns on July 21 at 10.30am, July 23 at 1.30pm, July 24 at 7pm and July 25 at 1pm. – Bangkok Post

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