Philippines cited as Standout - 74% led over all ASEAN countries

Philippines cited as standout

THE PHILIPPINES is poised to be the standout in Southeast Asia yet again, leading the pack in terms of economic growth and investor confidence, Standard Chartered Bank has projected.

In a survey of more than 900 investors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Manila emerged as the frontrunner among other key cities in the region, the British banking giant said in a report yesterday.

"The Philippines was the standout country in terms of the strength of on-the-ground sentiment… We expect the Philippines to see stronger investment growth this year, sustaining the strong momentum from 2012," Standard Chartered said.

Some 74% of investor-respondents in Manila expect to see better business prospects in 2013 compared to the year before, dwarfing scores in Jakarta (46%), Bangkok (44%), Singapore (44%) and Kuala Lumpur (41%).

The survey also found that investors in Manila are most worried about the European, American and Chinese markets this year. No one cited the Philippines as a concern. In comparison, 47% of investors in Kuala Lumpur said their own country worried them, followed by 43% in Singapore, 35% in Jakarta and 19% in Bangkok.

The peso is expected to get stronger, with 86% of investors in Manila saying they expect to see their currency appreciating against the dollar in 2013. Only 67% of investors in Bangkok, 52% in Kuala Lumpur, 50% in Singapore and 35% in Jakarta thought the same.

"We are optimistic that the Philippines will outperform the region and enjoy another year of strong growth momentum in 2013," Standard Chartered said.

It forecast that the country could grow by 5.8% this year and 6.1% next year, beating its 10-year average of 5.2%. The estimates, however, fall below the government targets of 6-7% and 6.5-7.5%, respectively. This follows the banner performance in 2012 when the gross domestic product (GDP) growth hit a stunning 6.6%, beating market expectations and the official goal of 5-6%.

According to Standard Chartered, the economy will likely be driven by domestic consumption yet again. Public and private investment should pick up too but exports could remain weak, acting as a "negative but limited drag on growth."

It also expected further progress in the public-private partnership (PPP) program, after eight projects -- mainly in infrastructure, transport and power -- were rolled out last year and others lined up for launch this year.

PEACE TO PROVIDE LIFT

Another upside to growth is the peace deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, it added. Citing its studies, the peace deal could add 0.1 percentage point to GDP in its first year of implementation, increasing to 0.3 percentage point by the fifth.

Standard Chartered also expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep policy rates on hold for now, then raise it by as much as 50 basis points by yearend. Rates could then be kept steady at that level next year.

Policy rates -- the benchmark for interest rates -- are at record lows of 3.5% and 5.5% for overnight borrowing and lending, respectively.

The rate hike could be prompted by an increase in the pace of inflation, it said. Higher energy and food prices, robust consumer spending and base effects could combine to push up inflation rate to 3.6% this year and 4% in 2014. These are well within the BSP target of 3-5% but much higher than the forecast full-year averages of 3% and 3.2% for 2013 and 2014, respectively.

The peso should remain strong, the bank said, underpinned by strong economic fundamentals. The local currency could climb to P39 against the dollar this year and P38 the year after.

The peso appreciated by some 6.8% against the greenback in 2012 -- one of the strongest performers in the region -- closing at P41.05 on the last trading day. So far this year, it has traded within the P40-to-a-dollar territory, much stronger than the P42-45 exchange rate assumed by the BSP.

Lastly, Standard Chartered said that reduction of the fiscal deficit is on track, especially with the recent increase in excise taxes on liquor and cigarettes, propelling the Philippines to bag its first ever investment grade credit rating.

The bank anticipates the deficit to fall to 1.8% of GDP in 2013 and 1.6% in 2014 -- against the cap of 2% for both years -- roughly equivalent to P238 billion and P266.2 billion, respectively.

"We expect at least two of the three main credit rating agencies to upgrade the Philippines to investment grade by end-2013…" it said.

"The case for investment grade is supported by a number of factors, including a resilient economy, a current account surplus, stable fiscal policy and the narrowing of the budget deficit."

The Philippines currently stands at one notch below investment grade with the three major credit rating agencies. It has a Ba1 rating with Moody's Investors Service and a BB+ rating with Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's. –

Read more in Business World Online 

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Leaked: Malaysian killed at least 10 pinoys everyday in Sabah: ASEAN rights body asked to probe abuses

The Philippine government is checking on reports of widespread abuses committed by Malaysian forces against Filipinos in Sabah.

The alleged abuses were committed in the course of the ongoing offensive against armed followers of Sulu Sultan Jamalul Kiram III in Lahad Datu.

The Commission on Human Rights (CHR) said it has asked the international human rights body of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to look into the alleged human rights abuses.

"It is incumbent upon international human rights bodies to really try to look at the situation," CHR chair Loretta Ann Rosales told The STAR yesterday.

The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) also said it is investigating the alleged abuses in coordination with the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA).

Rosales said she is also looking at having a joint mission with Malaysia's SUHAKAM, its human rights body, to investigate the issue. She said the ASEAN Inter-governmental Commission on Human Rights should launch its own probe.

"Ambassador Rosario Manalo herself is the head of the Commission on Women and Children of ASEAN. I will be writing her a letter," she said.

At the sub-regional level, Rosales said she would communicate with the SUHAKAM "to ask them if there is a possibility that we can have a joint mission to go to Sabah to look into alleged abuses."

She noted that alleged victims should definitely file complaints or write letters so that they can have access to justice but even without such complaints, "we should look into it motu propio."

Rosales called on concerned parties including media to be constructive in dealing with the matter because of its political ramifications.

"This is not an easy case," she told The STAR. "We should in fact come together – media, CHR, government, people – in order to address the question of how to protect the human rights of our own people in Malaysia, in Sabah, and work things out properly."

Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman, for her part, said her agency's relief efforts would go side by side with its probe on alleged abuses committed by Malaysian forces against Filipinos in Sabah.

"We are coordinating (with the DFA) based on interviews conducted with the people who arrived and (we are) getting feedback if there are human rights violations," Soliman said in a text message to The STAR.

"The DFA has coordinated with us on this matter," Soliman said.

She said the DSWD head office, in coordination with the DSWD-Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and the Department of Agriculture, has sent a total of 1,000 sacks of rice and 1,500 food packs to Jolo, Sulu and another 1,000 sacks of rice and 1,500 food packs to Bonggao, Tawi-Tawi.

She said 500 food packs have also been sent to Basilan.

"The food packs, which include rice, noodles, and canned goods, have also been shipped through a naval vessel from Bonggao, Tawi-Tawi to Taganak, Turtle Island. It takes eight hours of travel given that the waves are high during these times," Soliman said.

She said the food packs would be distributed to approximately 512 individuals who went to Turtle Island, Tawi-Tawi from Sandakan.

She also reported that 432 displaced individuals from Sabah have been processed by social workers from DSWD-ARMM since March 8.

Reports reaching Zamboanga City said Malaysian police were also extorting money from Filipinos in Sandakan.

"It's not enough that we are subjected to beating, the Malaysian police were also asking us to pay," said 27-year old Jelan Adjaran.

Adjaran, a mother of four, arrived in Bongao along with 20 other refugees from Sandakan.

Adjaran, a native of Kidapawan and married to a carpenter from Bongao, had been living in Sabah for four years.

"Those who failed to give money were detained and their documents torn before their eyes," Adjaran said.

She said the constant raids and threats from Malaysian forces prompted them to leave in a hurry, carrying only their personal belongings in sacks. She said they had no intention of returning to Sabah.

Adjaran said the skipper of the boat that brought them to Tawi-Tawi had turned away many in their group for fear of getting unwanted attention from Malaysian authorities.

She also said it's the thought of not finding livelihood in the Philippines that she and other refugees now find unnerving.

More appeal

Tawi-Tawi Vice Gov. Ruby Sahali said a humanitarian crisis is now prevailing in her province as refugees continue to arrive from Sabah.

"People get killed everyday with no less than 10 Filipinos being killed everyday in Sabah," she said. "We hope government would send help this way."

She pointed out that the province is already running out of food for the evacuees.

"It is obvious that Malaysian authorities are targeting not just the forces of Kiram but civilians as well. The Malaysian government should respect Filipinos, especially civilians in Sabah. We are civilized nations and we should act as such," Makabayan senatorial candidate Teddy Casiño said.

"Malaysian authorities seem to be hunting Filipinos in Sabah and this has to be stopped. Malaysia is supposed to be our partner is promoting peace in Mindanao but now they are slaughtering our people," Casiño said. – With Delon Porcalla, Edith Regalado, Roel Pareño, Czeriza Valencia, Mayen Jaymalin, Alexis Romero

Report source from PHILSTAR 

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