Bloomberg: Philippines Cleanest Government - Trounces Global Stocks in Aquino-Led Rally

The world's biggest equity bull market is propelling Philippine valuations to all-time highs as international investors pile into the country's stocks in an endorsement of President Benigno Aquino's economic policies.

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index has climbed 13 percent this year, bringing gains since October 2008 to 285 percent, at least 124 percentage points more than every other bull market in emerging and developed nations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The index turned into Asia's most expensive from the second-cheapest four years ago as rallies in Ayala Land Inc. and Bank of the Philippine Islands lifted the gauge to 19 times estimated profits.

Aquino's efforts to boost spending on government projects and tackle corruption are convincing foreign investors to look past the nation's speculative-grade credit rating and focus on the third-fastest growth in Asia after China and Thailand. While Invesco Ltd. says shares are too expensive, Samsung Asset Management and Religare Capital Markets see further gains of at least 20 percent and an investment-grade ranking this year.

"Funds will remain net buyers," Alan Richardson, who helps oversee about $110 billion as a money manager at Samsung Asset in Singapore, said in a Feb. 6 e-mail. "The focus is on opportunity and growth rather than contraction caused by deleveraging, bank recapitalization, fiscal austerity and increased regulatory oversight in many of the developed economies."

Bull Rally

The benchmark gauge for the nation's $236 billion equity market rose 0.7 percent yesterday to 6,565.23. The bull market, defined as an advance of at least 20 percent from the most recent low without a drop of the same magnitude on a closing basis, is the biggest since Bloomberg began compiling Philippine index data in 1987.

Mexico's IPC Index has climbed about 161 percent since March 2009, making it the second-biggest bull market among 45 emerging and advanced countries, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is up 125 percent from a low in the same month. In China, the biggest emerging market, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased 24 percent from its Dec. 3 low.

Philippine shares will probably return about 38 percent by the end of 2014, according to Samsung's Richardson. The benchmark index may rally 20 percent to 30 percent this year, said John Sturmey, head of equity capital markets at Religare Capital Markets, a unit of New Delhi-based Religare Enterprises Ltd.

Foreign Inflows

"We are very bullish on the Philippines for this year and the following years," Sturmey said in a Feb. 5 interview in Manila.

Foreign investors purchased a net $819 million of shares in Asia's 12th-biggest stock market this year, 120 percent more than during the same period a year ago, according to Philippine Stock Exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. The nation of about 100 million people recorded $2.5 billion of inflows last year, the most since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2000.

Growing confidence in the economy is also boosting the nation's currency and debt. The peso has appreciated 5 percent against the dollar during the past 12 months, the most in emerging markets, and reached the strongest level since 2008 last month at 40.55 to the dollar.

Economic Growth

Yields on local-currency debt, rated BB+ by Standard & Poor's, fell to a record 3.76 percent on Jan. 28, according to the JPMorgan GBI-EM Philippines Index. The cost to insure government bonds, rated one level below investment grade, against non-payment for five years using credit-default swaps was 103 basis points yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That compares with 121 for Brazil, whose foreign-currency debt is rated two levels above the Philippines.

Philippine gross domestic product increased 6.8 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, compared with 7.9 percent in China. The euro region contracted during the period, while the U.S. expanded 1.5 percent.

Aquino plans to boost spending to a record and seek more than $17 billion of infrastructure investments to spur growth of at least 6 percent this year. Projects to build a toll-road south of Manila and more than 9,300 classrooms have already been announced since he took office in June 2010.

The 53-year-old president has narrowed the budget deficit by cracking down on tax evasion and raising taxes on liquor and tobacco. The gap was probably 2.3 percent of GDP in 2012, Budget Secretary Butch Abad said in a Feb. 14 interview in Manila. That's down from 3.5 percent in 2010, according to Philippine Department of Finance data.

Fighting Corruption

Aquino, who had a 66 percent approval rating in a January survey conducted by Pulse Asia, has also focused on reducing corruption. Renato Corona, the country's top judge, was ousted in May for illegally concealing his wealth.

The Philippines was ranked 105 on Transparency International's 2012 Corruption Perceptions Index, an improvement from 134 in 2010. A lower ranking signals less corruption.

"The macro environment looks very positive and the Philippines probably has the cleanest government in its history," Alistair Thompson, deputy head of Asia Pacific ex- Japan equities at First State Investments in Singapore, said in a Jan. 16 phone interview. "Companies are very optimistic." His firm oversees about $147 billion.

Philippine stock valuations already reflect the good news, according to Paul Chan, the Hong Kong-based chief investment officer for Asia ex-Japan at Invesco, which oversees about $713 billion.

More Expensive

The benchmark index's valuation of 19 times projected 12- month earnings is the highest since Bloomberg began compiling the data in January 2006 and 46 percent more expensive than the MSCI All-Country World Index. The Philippine gauge has the world's second-highest multiple after Greece's ASE Index, which trades at 22 times estimated profits, the data show.

Ayala Land, a Manila-based developer, is valued at 39 times 2013 profit forecasts, more than twice the median multiple for global peers, according to the average of 14 projections compiled by Bloomberg.

Bank of the Philippine Islands, the country's biggest lender by market capitalization, trades for 4 times net assets, versus the 1.6 industry average.

Earnings-per-share in the Philippine index will probably increase 14 percent in the next 12 months, versus 25 percent for the MSCI All-Country gauge, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Earnings Outlook

"The Philippines is a very crowded market," Chan said in a Feb. 7 phone interview. He cut Philippine positions to less than 1 percent of total holdings from "much higher" levels last year and prefers shares in China and South Korea, where price-earnings ratios are about half the level of the Southeast Asian nation's.

There is "probably room" for Philippine stock valuations to climb as long as growth in earnings and the economy can be sustained, Hans Sicat, president of the country's bourse, said in a Feb. 15 interview in Tokyo.

First State's Thompson said he purchased shares of Manila- based BDO Unibank Inc. after visiting the country in November. The nation's second-biggest bank by market value trades for 2.2 times net assets, about half the multiple of Bank of the Philippine Islands.

Rating Trend

"We remain positive," Douglas Cairns, an investment specialist for Asia and emerging-market equities at Threadneedle Investments in London, which oversees about $122 billion, said in an e-mail on Feb. 7. Cairns said the firm has overweight holdings in Philippine shares, meaning positions exceed the country's representation in benchmark indexes.

An investment-grade credit rating may open Philippine capital markets to pension funds and endowments that have avoided the country, according to Samsung Asset's Richardson.

The rating will probably be upgraded in the first half, central bank Governor Amando Tetangco said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Jan. 25. S&P raised its outlook to positive from stable on Dec. 20, citing the stability of Aquino's administration and economic growth.

GDP will probably increase 6 percent to 7 percent this year and accelerate in 2014, Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said at a forum in Manila on Feb. 13.

Investors should add to their stock holdings on any declines, Christopher Wood, a Hong Kong-based strategist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets who recommends a bigger overweight position in the Philippines than any other equity market in Asia excluding Japan, said in a Feb. 7 report. "In such a structural bull market, those investors who focus too much on valuations sell way too early."

To contact the reporter on this story: Ian Sayson in Manila at isayson@bloomberg.net ; Weiyi Lim in Singapore at wlim26@bloomberg.net ; Michael Patterson in Hong Kong at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net (http://bloom.bg/151A34I)

Bloomberg 

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Sultan of Sulu will never back-down with Malaysia for North Borneo Territory Stand-off

Jamalul D. Kiram III (born on July 16, 1938 in Maimbung, Sulu; reigned 1974- 1981) was the Sultan of Sulu in Sulu, southern Philippines during the Marcos era. He was a candidate for senator in the 2007 Philippine Elections.  With his retirement, the succession rights of the sultanate was disputed among his heirs such as Mohammad Akijal Atti. The dispute on the succession rights ended in November 11, 2012 when all claimants from the Kiram family met together in Sulu, ending their decade-long feud. Jamalul Kiram III declared Rajah Mudah Agbimuddin Kiram as "crown prince"

The Sulu Sultanate was once a powerful kingdom, stretching from Borneo, Southern Philippines to parts of the Visayas, Part of Mindanao, Palawan to the Spratly Islands. During the height of its power during the 1700s, the Sultanate exercise  control over most of what is now known as Mindanao and North Borneo.

State of Sabah once controlled by the old Sultanate of Sulu but Britain illegally ceded the North Borneo to Malaysia without informing the Sultan and without even paying a single dime to the Sultan who ruled the territory.

'till todate, Malaysia still recognized Sabah State or North Borneo State as part of the Sultanate of Sulu by paying a rental of M$5,000 Malaysian Ringgit per year to the Royal Sultanate of the Southern Philippines.

Britain, the responsible of the trouble in North Borneo and the Southern Philippines for the illegal transfer of the territory to Malaysia remained silent for few decades and ignored the call of the Philippines to respect the Sultanate of Sulu as the original Territorial owner of Sabah (North Borneo) and the territory must be return to the Sultanate of Sulu. Philippines and the Sultanate of Sulu State are too weak also to against the illegal order and the bully of the abusing  powerful Britain.

Sulu sultan won't budge

As reported by INQUIRER Global Nation, the recently crowned Sultan with his brother will never back down for the current stand-off between his men and the Malaysian Authority in North Borneo.

Undaunted amidst mounting pressure from both the Philippine and Malaysian governments, Sultan Jamalul Kiram III, the acknowledged leader of the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo insisted that his royal decree that authorized the presence of  his younger brother, crown prince Rajah Mudah Agbimuddin Kiram and the combined civilian and armed followers in Lahad Datu, Sabah, Malaysia, stays.

"My decree is not about war. We are not waging war. I sent my brother in Sabah in the name of peace and in exercise of our historic, ancestral and sovereign right over Sabah," Jamalul told the INQUIRER in a phone interview facilitated through members of his family who were beside him as he was resting after undergoing his regular dialysis treatment.

Jamalul is in Metro Manila and is guarded by family and close relatives.

Asked as to until when his decree stays? Jamalul said, "For as long as necessary. Sabah is our homeland and the international community acknowledges this. If we have to go to the United Nations we will do so. It is upon us, the leaders of Sulu to claim back what is ours," the sultan added.

Does he have any message for the Philippine government?

"Everything I want to tell the President, I already told him in a letter sent to him, shortly after he assumed the presidency in 2010. I told him in that letter that it is the noble dream of the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo to achieve unity, peaceful survival and economic prosperity and to be able to achieve that, the Sabah issue cannot be ignored," Jamalul said.

Jamalul is 74 years old, the eldest among the Kiram brothers who are direct descendants of the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo. He ran and lost for senator in the 2007 National Elections under the Team Unity of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Abraham Julpa Idjirani, secretary general and spokesperson for the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo said, Jamalul was supposed to meet on Saturday afternoon with some officials of the Aquino administration but was not able to do so because of the dialysis treatment.

Jamalul's wife Fatima Celia told the INQUIRER that her husband has been undergoing dialysis treatment for more than a year now.

Map of the Sultanate of Sulu

Open to talks with Palace

Idjirani said, they are open to talks with any official sent by Malacañang as he was already contacted by several officials of the Aquino administration since the standoff in Lahad Datu, Malaysia, was reported in the media. He did not identify the officers who got in touch with him but mentioned the agencies these officials are attached to. "Magpahinga lang si Sultan Jamalul, at pag naka-pahinga na siya, puwede na naming harapin ang sinumang opisyal na gustong makipag-usap sa kanya (After resting, Sultan Jamalul can face any official who wants to talk to him)," Idjirani said.

The INQUIRER also learned from another independent source who wished not to be identified that President Benigno Aquino III was informed of the presence of civilian and armed supporters of the Sultanate of Sulu in Lahad Datu, Malaysia, as early as the morning of Feb. 11 through one of his Cabinet members. "But at that time, the report was still sketchy and we had no idea who the group was. But the President was alerted about this on Day 1 of their landing in Sabah," the source said.

The Office of the Presidential Adviser in the Peace Process had no comment on Saturday on the Kirams' claim that they were taking back Sabah.

In Lahad Datu in Sabah, Agbimuddin told the Inquirer that he only follows and receives order from Jamalul and no one else. No one can force us to leave. Even if I, as crown prince of the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo is guarded by armed men belonging to our royal security forces, we will never provoke any encounter," Agbimuddin said.

Assorted arms

Members of the royal security force are armed with assorted long firearms,  Agbimuddin said. "M-14, M-16, M203, Baby Armalite, basta assorted ang dala namin (we have all kinds)," he explained when asked what type of firearms they were carrying.

The active recruitment for members of the royal security force of the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo, according to Agbimuddin, began in 1999 but training only began in 2001 in Simunol, Tawi-Tawi, Isabela, Basilan and even in mainland Zamboanga. "Sa Grand Stand pa nga kami ng Zamboanga nag-physical fitness exercise at alam ng Southcom 'yan (We do our physical fitness exercises at the Zamboanga grand stand, and the Southcom knew it)," Agbimuddin added.

The Southcom he is referring to is the Southern Command of the Armed Forces of the Philippines based in Zamboanga City and the Grand Stand is the one near Cawa-Cawa Boulevard.

Relatives on board

Who takes care of their logistics? Like food and other basic necessities since their landing in Lahad Datu?

Agbimuddin said, most of the residents of Tanduao, Lahad Datu, are Tausugs and relatives of the ones who went with him on board a motorboat from Tawi-Tawi. "Hindi kami magugutom dito at ang mga babae na kasama namin, sila ang nagluluto para sa amin (The women who are with us are doing the cooking)."

Will other groups with the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo follow him in Lahad Datu?

More coming

Agbimuddin answered that was his understanding, but he said he didn't know when. There might even be more, he said.

Another source from Sulu told the Inquirer that a group identified with a local political clan with a stronghold in one municipality there is reportedly getting ready to follow Agbimuddin in Sabah. The source identified the political leader as a relative of the Kirams and also a former mayor and a former member of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) known then as the "Tiger of the MNLF."

"The mayor is getting ready and waiting for the order from Sultan Kiram III to proceed [to Sabah]," the source said in Filipino, adding that the influential leader in Sulu, now in his early 60s, command a force of more than 200 men.

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