SCS South China Sea tensions rattle China's neighbors

China's growing naval power has encouraged it to be more assertive

Chinese leaders like to talk about their country's "peaceful rise" - and Europe's financial traumas are giving Beijing plenty of scope to assume the role of a benign new force on the world stage.

President Hu Jintao has presented himself as a "friend in need" during encounters with European supplicants while stopping short, for now, of committing China to a specific contribution.

But China has been showing a very different face to countries closer to home in an increasingly tense confrontation over rival claims to the resource-rich waters of the South China Sea.

It is a region where the peaceful nature of China's rise is starting to be questioned as it pushes a long-standing maritime claim that stretches deep into South East Asia.

China have threaten the 2 small neighbors that if the Philippines and Vietnam will not agree with what china's wants, then they will use force. "If these countries do not want to change their ways with China, they will need to prepare for the sound of cannons" – [published under  Global Times]

"China is becoming much more confident in the region and there are signs it is becoming giddy with success. It has become much more influential much more quickly than it expected," says Dr Kerry Brown of the Asia Programme at Chatham House in London.

Vietnam and the Philippines in recent months have seen the snarl of a resurgent regional power that is fast losing patience with the gripes of smaller neighbors over maritime borders.

"If these countries do not want to change their ways with China, they will need to prepare for the sound of cannons. It may be the only way for the dispute in the sea to be resolved," said the state run newspaper, the Global Times, in a recent editorial.

The Philippines stands remain strong as they said anytime; we are willing to defend our territory in any form of invasion.

Philippines as the highly affected country of china's warning because almost all part of the disputed in the Spratlys is within it 200 Nautical Miles Exclusive Economic Zone become immune of China's threat. They are used to as that what china did often.

If China has successfully invaded the mischief reef and adjacent reef of Mainland Palawan, a province of the Philippines then this time, it not be happen again to any other islands and reefs within 200 Nautical Miles of the County.

China successfully invaded the mischief reef in 1995 when china build a fishermen shelter in the water of the Philippines but when asked; they replied that they are building a fishermen shelter but later the converted it into a military garrison inside the Philippines' territory.

Hard power

Chinese officials have been more restrained in their comments, but foreign ministry spokesmen have issued a series of warnings about what they see as encroachments into Chinese waters.

Beijing says it does want a peaceful solution. But Vietnam and the Philippines say Chinese ships have stepped up harassment of vessels involved in oil exploration and fishing.

China's stance on the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) is making neighbors like Vietnam worried

"The growth of Chinese military spending is beginning to translate into hard power," says John Hemmings, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute.

"This is the first major sign that a more confident Chinese grand strategy is emerging. It is in the South China Sea that there is a real risk of discord between the US and China."

The disputes are about oil and gas reserves, lucrative fisheries and sea lanes that are crucial to the giant industrial economies of East Asia. But they also point to a strategic contest with the United States, which has been the dominant military power in the western Pacific since 1945.

"China is driven by a nationalistic agenda - it won't find it easy to make compromises over what are seen as crucial resources, such as energy in the South China Sea"- [Dr Kerry Brown.]

"China has a containment mindset," says Kerry Brown. "It thought that the United States was ceding influence but it sees the US is still active all around its borders from Afghanistan to Japan."

In the latest incident, Beijing responded sharply to an announcement by the American company, Exxon Mobil, of a new oil find off the coast of central Vietnam.

It appears to be well within Vietnam's 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. But China issued a now familiar warning that it has indisputable sovereignty to large parts of the sea.

"We hope foreign companies do not get involved in disputed waters for oil and gas exploration and development," said a foreign ministry spokesman. China's insecurity with US & Indian presence in the area shows it weakness and wanting to monopolize and bully the 2 small country; Philippines and Vietnam.

Vietnam vulnerable

China's maritime claim is ill-defined but it resembles a giant U shape extending for more than 1,000km (621 miles) off its southern coast and reaching into what Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei see as their own waters.

It recently warned Indian firms to stay away after they signed exploration agreements with Vietnam. India has nettled its giant neighbor by developing a "strategic partnership" with Vietnam - in China's view an intrusion into its own backyard.

Vietnam appears most vulnerable. Its leaders have been stung into an unaccustomed flurry of foreign visits as they seek help from the region and beyond.

"Vietnam feels out on a limb," says John Hemmings. "It understands that a naval conflict with China could be over very quickly. The Vietnamese are much more exposed than they first thought."

The West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) dispute raises intense passions in Vietnam.

Some believe it will be very hard for China to back down.

"China is driven by a nationalistic agenda, It won't find it easy to make compromises over what are seen as crucial resources, such as energy in the South China Sea," says Kerry Brown.

Whatever its intention, China has succeeded in frightening traditional US allies such as Japan and South Korea firmly back into the American fold, along with a host of new suitors.

US officials have tried to underline their commitment to the region, at a time when some allies are questioning Washington's staying power.

US naval might

It will be years before China's growing military power can challenge the overwhelming naval might of the United States, backed as it is by a network of military bases across Asia.

But China's development of new land based missiles designed to target aircraft carriers is a sign of its fast-growing capabilities.

"I want to make very clear that the United States is going to remain a presence in the Pacific for a long time," said the defense secretary, Leon Panetta, on an Asian visit late last month "If anything, we're going to strengthen our presence in the Pacific."

President Barack Obama is expected to underline this commitment when he hosts Asian leaders at the APEC conference in Hawaii this month.

China may have found in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) dispute an arena to test US resolve and attempt to nudge it out of the region.

If Washington fails to live up to its rhetoric, China's smaller neighbors will have little choice but to accept the new realities of what the US itself is calling the "Pacific Century"

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China wary as India looks East – South China Sea

In China, smaller publications in landlocked provinces are a better guide to the actual thinking of the immense cadre of the Chinese Communist Party than the bigger media outlets, especially those in English. The latter usually give a more restrained and assessment of situations, which is why it was a surprise to South Block (home of the Prime Minister's Office and the External Affairs Ministry) to note the harsh language of even leading English-language publications in Beijing ( such as "Global Times") about India's outreach to Myanmar and Vietnam. The ire was mostly against the oil prospecting contracts signed by state-owned Indian companies with their Vietnamese counterparts.

The Chinese media saw this as "interference in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea)", all of which is claimed by China and parts are claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam & Other ASEAN neighbors. The sea has immense deposits of hydrocarbon and other minerals essential to a fast-developing and large economy such as India; hence it is not likely that Petroleum Minister Jaipal Reddy will abandon the joint venture with Vietnam. The policy of Delhi is that the disputes between different countries in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) is a matter for them to settle, but that in the meantime, India will undertake commercial and other transactions with each of the governments whose territories about the sea. Beijing wants all countries to deal only with itself in any such activity; an in effect wants a monopoly over the resources of the Sea.

Apart from the vituperative articles against Vietnam, the Philippines and India written in English-language and Mandarin publications published from China, numerous China-based internet sites have gone much further in their verbal attack on the three Asian neighbors of China. Some have even alluded to the "racial inferiority" of people from India, Vietnam and the Philippines when compared to Han Chinese, and called for them to be slaughtered by military might "in the manner of roadkill" ie animals killed by vehicles while crossing a road. The overwhelming majority of the Chinese people are highly cultured, steeped as they are in a civilization which goes back 5000 years, but clearly there are some who in their thinking resemble followers of Adolf Hitler. Although such arrogant and aggressive voices are almost certainly not representative of the view of the Chinese Communist Party, yet the frequency with which they have appeared in the Chinese media have led to calls to strengthen Indian defenses on the border with China, a border which has been tranquil except for four brief instances since the 1962 war.

Since 2009, the Indian Air Force has moved a squadron of Sukhoi-35s to the China border, while the army has placed nuclear-capable missiles within easy reach of PLA fortifications and concentrations. On both sides of the border, there is hectic increase in activity relating to the creation or the strengthening of infrastructure, although as yet conditions on the Chinese side are far superior. Even in relation to equipment, PLA forces are much better off than their Indian counterparts. They have lighter bulletproof vests, better rifles and night-fighting capabilities, all of which has been documented in a recent issue of "India Today". Where India's military scores lies in the fact that it is battle-hardened. Constant sorties against hostile elements within the borders of the country has improved the fighting capacity of the Indian soldier, and made him or her better able to prevail, even against a better-equipped enemy. In this sense, even NATO soldiers are better prepared for war than troops from countries that have been at peace for long periods, such as China, which last fought a war in 1979 (against Vietnam). In the case of Pakistan as well, its soldiers are battle-hardened as well, because of action seen in numerous conflicts, some within the country.

However, this columnist is among those who believe that the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party has the wisdom to avoid war. There is a huge difference between the China since the time Deng took full control of the party in 1981 and the past, when Beijing was involved in the Korean, Indian and Vietnamese conflicts, besides skirmishes across the Taiwan Straits and with (the then) USSR. There is no doubt that Deng Xiaoping was a great statesperson, who is responsible for modern China.

During his time, civilian spending was emphasized and military budgets reduced. Deng made it clear that he favored a policy of peace, and although China was a huge country, took a very conciliatory line on external disputes. He was also searching for a solution to the Sino-Indian boundary dispute when ill-health and age forced him to take a much more reduced role in governance by the start of the 1990s. While his successor Jiang Zemin occasionally adopted a tough line, General Secretary Hu Jintao has reverted to the wise policies of Deng Xiaoping, stressing the importance of harmony in relations between states. However, since China is much richer today than it was during Deng's time, Hu has presided over an immense quantitative improvement in the capabilities and provisioning of the PLA.

The rapid economic growth since China took firmly to the Path of Peace is evidence that conflict may not be the best way to promote the national interest. Those who glibly talk of going to war against Vietnam and India, for instance, ought to examine the condition of China during the 1950s or the 1960s and see it in the 21st century, the second-biggest economy in the world, with $3 trillion worth of cash reserves, almost higher than the rest of the globe combined. Indeed, Sino-Indian trade has zoomed over the past decade, now crossing $60 billion and headed to $100 billion in two years time. In fact, the prospects are for trade between India and China to cross $300 billion in ten years, providing income and employment to millions of people on both sides of the border. This prosperity would be at risk, were there to be the cataclysmic event of a fresh Sino-Indian war.

Both the leaders of India as well as China are aware of the centrality of peace and friendship to the economic health of both countries. Which is why the hotheads who write vituperative essays against the other country are ignored by the top leadership in Beijing or Delhi? Indeed, both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Wen Jiabao are to meet in the beautiful island of Bali on November 19, when they attend the East Asia Summit. Both will also be meeting (albeit separately) with President Obama of the US. Such meetings will help ensure that temperatures remain cool and that differences over the South China Sea get resolved peacefully, and in a way that ensures access to resources and economic development for all sides.

M D Nalapat—The writer of this article is Vice-Chair, Manipal Advanced Research Group, UNESCO Peace Chair & Professor of Geopolitics, Manipal University, Haryana State, India.

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